AUD/USD Outlook: Trump Address Could Trigger Breakout or Breakdown

AUD/USD is hovering near key technical levels as markets await President Trump’s address to the nation. With no confirmed agenda, traders are left to price in a wide range of outcomes — from risk-on relief to a deeper risk-off move. That uncertainty leaves the Australian dollar at a pivotal juncture, with technical levels and macro headlines set to collide.

View related analysis:

AUD/USD At Pivotal Level Ahead Of Trump’s Address

Trump Address Looms Without Clear Agenda

President Trump is set to address the nation in just over three hours. While no official agenda has been confirmed, we know it will — or at least should — involve a major development. I say “should,” having endured Australian PM Anthony Albanese’s seemingly pointless address to the nation yesterday.

That said, Trump has given plenty of notice, which leaves the potential for something more than a nothing burger.

Potential topics include:

Middle East / Iran situation (likely)
A military update or signs of de-escalation (likely risk-on, weaker oil and US dollar)
Implications for oil supply and the Strait of Hormuz (potentially risk-off, oil and US dollar higher)
Withdrawing from Nato (very likely risk-off)
A broader policy shift or strategic decision
Aliens live among us (may as well at this point)
A Trump hotel chain announcement

NATO Withdrawal: The Key Risk-Off Scenario

In all honesty, I don’t know what he has lined up. But I do find it odd that he has given over 24 hours’ notice — that’s not something I’d expect if he were about to announce a major achievement. If he were to confirm a withdrawal from NATO, it would likely be the most risk-off scenario on the list, sending equities lower while gold and the US dollar attract safe-haven bids.

Further out, things become less clear but potentially more volatile, as the removal of the world’s largest superpower from a defensive alliance could pave the way for greater geopolitical instability and increase the risk of conflict.

In any case, traders and the broader public alike will be watching closely, which likely means volatility will remain suppressed heading into the event. And that places the Australian dollar firmly on the radar to see which way Trump sends risk in around three hours.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar vs US Dollar

AUD/USD Breaks Lower As Momentum Turns

It took eight weeks for momentum to finally turn lower and break AUD/USD out of its tight range. I had noted in prior reports that stretched positioning in the futures market, following a prolonged move higher, had me on guard for a downside break — which is now underway. The question now is whether Trump will send the Aussie lower with risk-off sentiment, or end the correction early with another “Trump pump.”

Source: Forex.com, TradingView

Key Resistance Levels For AUD/USD Near 70c

The daily chart shows AUD/USD has risen for two days to snap its seven-day losing streak, though a cluster of technical levels sits nearby. These include the 70c handle, the 2024 high (0.6826), the 50-day EMA (0.6962), and the monthly pivot point (0.6973).

Bears could seek to fade moves towards 70c, with a sustained break above invalidating the near-term bearish bias.
This week’s low (0.6833), the 68c handle, monthly S1 pivot (0.6759), 200-day EMA (0.6740), and weekly VPOC (0.6732) highlight two potential support zones for bears to target if momentum rolls over.
If a break above 70c is accompanied by a broader risk-on move, it would suggest the correction from the highs is complete and AUD/USD momentum has realigned with its dominant bullish trend — putting traders on alert for another bullish breakout.

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-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

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