Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Reverses at Uptrend Resistance- Range Break to Set Direction

Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Short-term Trade Levels

AUD/USD reverses from uptrend resistance into the open of the year with the pullback extend more than 1.5% off the high
Key range in focus just above confluent support at the yearly open- breakout to determine near-term direction
Resistance 6717/6727 (key), 6745, 6767- Support 6663/73 (key), 6635, 6600

AUD/USD has reversed from uptrend resistance after failing at the upper parallel of the November pitchfork, triggering a sharp pullback from the recent highs. With the December opening-range now set just above the yearly open, the immediate focus shifts to a breakout of this range for near-term direction. While the broader structure remains constructive, the reaction around this zone will be critical in determining whether the pair can reassert upside momentum or if the reversal signals a deeper corrective phase. Battle lines drawn on the Aussie short-term technical charts.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook we noted that AUD/USD was approaching confluent uptrend resistance and the “risk rises for near-term exhaustion here. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops. Losses should be limited to 6569 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the upper parallel / 6653 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.” Aussie rallied to test the September close-high before turning lower with a five-day decline registering an intraday low at 6593 before rallying to fresh yearly highs in late-December.

The rally exhausted into uptrend resistance on building momentum divergence last week at the upper parallel of the November pitchfork. Aussie plunged more than 1.5% off the highs with price attempting to snap a three-day losing streak today. The December opening-range is now set just above the objective yearly open, and the focus is on a breakout in the days ahead to offer guidance into the close of the month.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Aussie price action shows AUD/USD rallying into initial resistance today at the 2025 high-close / 61.8% retracement of the monthly range at 6717/27. Looking for a reaction off this mark in the days ahead with a breach / close above needed mark uptrend resumption. Subsequent resistance is eyed at the 78.6% retracement at 6745 with a breach above the monthly range high at 6767 ultimately needed to fuel the next major leg of the Aussie advance towards the 2024 / 2023 yearly open at 6811/17.

Support rests with the January opening-range low / yearly open at 6663/74. Note that the median-line converges on this threshold over the next few days and a break / close below would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place and a larger correction is underway within the multi-month uptrend. Subsequent support rests with the 38.2% retracement of the November rally at 6635 and is backed by the 66-handle. The lower parallel converges on this level into the close of the week – look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Bottom line: AUD/USD exhausted into uptrend resistance with the January opening-range now set just above yearly open support. From a trading standpoint, the immediate focus is on a breakout of the 6631-6727 for near-term guidance- losses would need to be limited to the median-line IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 6767 needed to fuel the next major leg of the AUD/USD advance.

Keep in mind we get the December Consumer Price Index tomorrow and traders will be closely eyeing an update on inflation on the heels of Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll report. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly close here for guidance. Review my latest Australian Dollar Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

Key AUD/USD Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

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