Bitcoin Futures Near Bull Flag Target as Bulls Eye 134,000

Bitcoin futures came within a cat’s whisker of the bullish flag target I outlined back in Q4 last year, with the recent record high briefly trading above $124,800 on July 14. That’s close enough for a cigar moment in my books. With sentiment on Wall Street buoyant, trade tensions seemingly behind us, and a Trump administration finally turning its attention to crypto land, further upside for Bitcoin remains the core theme.

View related analysis:

Bitcoin Futures Technical Outlook: Bull Flag Support Holds as Bulls Target 134,000

The daily chart shows a strong uptrend since the breakout in late April, with the cumulative volume delta (CVD) broadly confirming the move higher—indicating that buyers have remained the dominant force during the rally.

However, CVD has slipped in recent sessions while prices remain elevated, suggesting waning support in the near term. Traders may want to stay alert for a potential shakeout at current levels. That said, given the strength of the daily trend, bulls are likely to welcome any dips towards support as opportunities to re-enter in anticipation of a break to new highs.

• The January and 2024 highs around 115,000 could offer support for a shallow swing low—potentially forming a bull flag on the daily chart.

• A bull flag breakout from this pattern projects a potential target around 134,000, assuming prices hold above 115,000.

• A break below 115,000 shifts focus to the high-volume node (HVN) at 106,610, which could still offer a favourable area for bulls to rejoin the broader trend.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - Source: TradingView Bitcoin CME Futures (BTC1!)

Bitcoin Futures Leveraged Exposure – COT Report

Net-short exposure among leveraged traders reached a record high in December while Bitcoin prices were also at record levels—strongly implying that these traders were acting as hedgers. The decline in net-short exposure throughout 2025, even as prices continued to rise, suggests reduced hedging activity among leveraged participants.

Additionally, the rise in gross long positions since the April low—outpacing gross shorts—implies that leveraged traders may be shifting toward a more speculative, bullish stance rather than simply managing downside risk.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - Source: CME, LSEG

View the full economic calendar

-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

How to trade with City Index

You can trade with City Index by following these four easy steps:

Open an account, or log in if you’re already a customer

• Open an account in the UK

• Open an account in Australia

• Open an account in Singapore
Search for the market you want to trade in our award-winning platform
Choose your position and size, and your stop and limit levels
Place the trade

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. Head and Registered Office: 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company registered in England and Wales, number: 05616586. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FCA Register Number: 446717.

City Index is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd.

The information on this website is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.