Risk assets are approaching critical breakout levels ahead of Trump’s speech, as markets wait for confirmation from Iran to validate the recent recovery. Optimism in yesterday’s session was reflected across charts, following easing rhetoric that pressured crude oil back below the $100 threshold and pushed major risk assets toward key resistance levels.
- Nasdaq is trading near the neckline of its double top pattern around the 24,000 level
- Silver is approaching the neckline of a potential bullish reversal pattern, an inverted head and shoulders formation, near the $75 resistance
- Gold is nearing the $4800 resistance
- Bitcoin remains below the $70,000–$75,000 resistance zone (raising caution for the rallies or just lagging?)
- The DXY has pulled back toward the 99 support level
As markets retest these breakout levels, confirmation of any structural shift remains on hold ahead of Trump’s speech scheduled for 9 PM ET, addressing the Iran conflict. Recent headlines suggest a potential willingness from Iran to engage in ceasefire discussions, while Trump indicated a possible timeline of two to three weeks for disengagement, with or without a formal agreement.
Key variables remain in focus: confirmation from Iran, the status of the Strait of Hormuz, and the normalization of energy prices and insurance premiums toward pre-conflict levels. The weight of the conflict on energy markets is already feeding into inflation expectations, creating a sensitive backdrop for credit markets.
With market sentiment and repricing moving faster than underlying fundamentals, a confirmed alignment scenario could reinforce a stronger recovery across risk assets. A lack of alignment would likely keep markets in a consolidation phase with downside risks.
Bitcoin remains a key lagging indicator in this environment, showing less participation in the recent recovery compared to other risk assets. Price action continues to hold below the 70,000–75,000 resistance zone. On the grounds, military operations are expected to escalate ahead of any peace deal announcements.
Bitcoin Outlook: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Trading View
Bitcoin’s slower response to recent market optimism raises caution around the sustainability of current gains. A confirmed shift in trend requires sustained closes above key resistance levels. For now, price action remains in consolidation between the 60,000 support and the 75,000 resistance.
Bullish Scenario
A close above 75,000 would strengthen bullish expectations, with near-term targets toward the 80,000 and 90,000 range, aligning with the consolidation seen between November 2025 and January 2026. A break above 90,000 would reinforce longer-term projections toward previous highs near 115,000 and 130,000, opening the path toward the 150,000–200,000 range, supported by improving regulatory conditions globally.
Bearish Scenario
Price action remains aligned with oversold conditions not seen since 2022, when Bitcoin traded near 15,000. A break below 58,000 would expose the 48,000 zone as a potential dip-buying area. A deeper move could extend toward 38,000; however, the 48,000 level remains more probable, given its alignment with the August 2024 lows.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Follow on X: @Rh_waves
