Bitcoin Rout Stalls as Familiar Retracement Pattern Reappears

The bearish Bitcoin target around 90k that I outlined in early October was reached on Wednesday. It wasn’t the easiest target to set, given it required a break below the key 100k level and came with plenty of verbal pushback from bulls along the way. But it felt as though the tide had turned, with Wall Street also under pressure and cryptocurrencies generally pricing in more bad news than good.

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The 90k level wasn’t picked out of thin air. It sits near the March volume point of control (VPOC), and it marks a -32% correction from the high — matching the depth of the previous two retracements. I can’t claim to understand why 32% matters to Bitcoin traders, but it does appear to be a pattern nonetheless.

This now puts Bitcoin at a potential inflection point. It also raises the question of whether we’ll see a solid rebound back to record highs — as we did after the August 2024 and April 2025 lows — or whether bears still have more to deliver. Either way, I suspect a near-term low is close before the market decides its next directional move.

Bitcoin Pullback Holds at a Key Retracement Zone

Bitcoin Technical Overview: BTC/USD at a Monthly Turning Point

We still have ten calendar days left in the month, but Bitcoin futures are on track for their worst month in nine. Even if prices recover into month-end — which I suspect they will — November has already been the most volatile in at least seven months.

A triple top has formed on the monthly chart within a relatively tight range, and November’s bearish range-expansion candle suggests Bitcoin’s broader pullback may have further to run once the anticipated bounce has played out.

The weekly chart shows a heavily oversold RSI (2) to warn of a near term inflection point, though the RSI (14) remains bearish without being oversold and continues to point lower.

AI doubt bitcoin will make it to 100k but it is an obvious resistance area to consider and lull bulls into a false breakout. Ultimately, a move down to the April low (79,785) could be the next target for bears, ahead of 70k near the 200-week SMA, should the wheels truly fall off.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - data source: TradingView Bitcoin CME Futures (BTC1!)

Bitcoin Correlations

It’s worth remembering that Bitcoin maintains a strong correlation with broader Wall Street sentiment — particularly tech. Another earnings beat and upbeat outlook from Nvidia (NVDA) after Wednesday’s close helped BTC futures climb roughly 3% during a quiet Asian session. The 10-, 20- and 60-day data all show firm positive correlations with the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and SOX (semiconductor index). While the correlation with Nvidia itself is slightly weaker on the shorter windows, the relationship is still clearly supportive.

Given my bearish outlook for both Nvidia and the Nasdaq 100, this strengthens the case that Bitcoin’s bears may have more room to push.

Charts prepared by Matt Simpson, Source: CME, LSEG

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-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

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