CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open account
✖
News hero gradient

British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Bears Halted Post-NFP – Decision Time at Pivotal Support

By :   Michael Boutros , Sr. Technical Strategist
November 20, 2025 5:20 PM

British Pound Technical Forecast: GBP/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • GBP/USD halted a four-day losing streak with Sterling testing pivotal downtrend support into the weekly close
  • While the broader outlook remains tilted to the downside, the immediate focus is on a possible price inflection off this zone as traders assess post-NFP reaction
  • Resistance 1.3140/42, ~1.3220 (key), 1.3280/84- Support 1.3080 (key), 1.2895, 1.2745/73

The British Pound is poised snap a two-week rally with the break below the 52-week moving average taking GBP/USD into downtrend support. A mixed read on the September Non-Farm Payroll report today halted a four-day decline and while the broader downtrend remains intact, the near-term focus is on whether this support zone can spark a short-term recovery or give way to a deeper decline. The jobs data offered little directional clarity for the Dollar, and traders are now watching for confirmation from price action at this level to guide positioning into next week. Battle lines drawn on the GBP/USD weekly technical chart.

British Pound Price Chart – GBP/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s British Pound Weekly Forecast we noted that GBP/USD had broken below the October opening-range lows and, “while the decline does threaten a deeper pullback, the immediate focus is on a reaction off this support pivot into the monthly cross. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of short-exposure / lower protective stops- rallies should be limited to the median-line IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 1.3080 needed to fuel the next major leg of this decline.” Sterling failed to mark a weekly close below support into the November open with price rallying nearly 1.6% off the monthly low before exhausting last week just below the median-line. The subsequent decline is now testing support at the 100% extension of the decline off the yearly highs at 1.3080- looking for a reaction off this mark in the days ahead.

Initial resistance is eyed at the May / July lows and the 2023 swing high at 1.3140/42 and is backed by the median-line, currently near ~1.3220s. A break / weekly close above this slope is needed to suggest a more significant low is in place and that a large recovery is underway within the broader downtrend. Subsequent resistance is eyed at the July low-week close (LWC) and the 38.2% retracement of the September decline at 1.3280/84 with broader bearish invalidation now lowered to the 50% retracement at 1.3369.

A break / weekly close below 1.3080 and the 25% parallel is needed to mark resumption of the June downtrend with subsequent support objectives seen at the March 2024 high and the 2025 March high-week close at 1.2894/95. Note that the lower parallel converges on this threshold next week- look for a larger inflection there IF reached. The next major technical consideration rests at 1.2745/73- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range and the February 2019 low.

Bottom line: Sterling is testing support this week and although the broader outlook remains tilted to the downside the immediate focus is on possible inflection off this zone with short-bias vulnerable while above. From a trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to 1.3140 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below the 25% parallel needed to fuel the next major leg of this decline. Review my latest British Pound Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term GBP/USD technical trade levels.

GBP/USD Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. Head and Registered Office: 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company registered in England and Wales, number: 05616586. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FCA Register Number: 446717.

City Index is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd.

The information on this website is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.

© City Index 2026