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British Pound Outlook into UK CPI: GBP/USD, GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD

By :   Matt Simpson , Market Analyst
November 18, 2025 9:00 PM

The British pound is mixed across the majors, but bearish technical signals are forming against USD, AUD and CAD. If today’s UK inflation data undershoots expectations and increases the odds of a Bank of England cut, it could support downside setups in GBP/USD, GBP/CAD and GBP/AUD.

 

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - data source: LSEG

 

View related analysis:

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: British Pound vs US Dollar

The British pound remains in a clear downtrend against the US dollar on the daily chart, with GBP/USD within a potential bearish continuation pattern (rising channel). A bearish divergence has formed on the daily RSI (2) and the RSI (14) remains below 50 to show negative momentum overall.

Prices are holding around the May low (1.3140) for now, which a potential pivotal level over the near term. The 20-day SMA is also capping as resistance.

Should prices initially move higher, bears could seek to fade into moves towards the monthly pivot point (1.3260) near the 200-day SMA (1.3257).

The next major support level for bears to potentially target is the 1.30 handle, near the monthly S1 pivot (1.2990) and November low.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - data source: TradingView GBP/USD

 

 

GBP/CAD Technical Analysis: British Pound vs Canadian Dollar

The British pound remains in a clear downtrend against the US dollar, with GBP/USD trading inside a potential bearish continuation pattern (a rising channel). A bearish divergence has formed on the daily RSI(2), while the RSI(14) remains below 50, keeping momentum negative.

Price is hovering around the May low at 1.3140, which is acting as a short-term pivot. The 20-day EMA continues to cap rallies.

If GBP/USD pushes higher initially, bears may look to fade into moves toward the monthly pivot at 1.3260, aligning with the 200-day EMA at 1.3257.

The next major support zone sits around the 1.30 handle, in line with the monthly S1 pivot at 1.2990 and the November low.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - data source: TradingView GBP/CAD

 

GBP/AUD Technical Analysis: British Pound vs Australian Dollar

There are similarities between GBP/CAD and GBP/AUD, although GBP/AUD looks a step behind as it trades near the top of its sideways range.

A double top has formed around the December high (2.03), the monthly pivot (2.031), and just beneath the 200-day EMA. A shooting-star candle and bearish RSI(2) divergence point to a near-term top. The bias favours at least a move towards the range lows around the 2.00 handle. A break beneath 2.00 exposes the February VPOC at 1.9872, close to the monthly S1 pivot at 1.9771.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - data source: TradingView GBP/AUD

 

 

 

 

Key Economic Events for Traders (AEDT / GMT+11)

08:45 — NZD PPI (Q3) (NZD/USD, AUD/NZD, NZD/JPY)

10:50 — JPY Adjusted Trade Balance (USD/JPY, Nikkei 225, JPY/USD)
10:50 — JPY Core Machinery Orders (Sep) (USD/JPY, Nikkei 225, JGB futures)

11:00 — AUD MI Leading Index (Oct) (AUD/USD, ASX 200, AUD/JPY)

11:30 — AUD Wage Price Index (Q3) (AUD/USD, ASX 200, AUD/JPY)

11:55 — USD Fed Logan Speaks (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, USD/JPY)

14:30 — USD Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks (S&P 500, Dow Jones, USD/JPY)

18:00 — GBP Inflation Indicators (Oct) (GBP/USD, FTSE 100, EUR/GBP)

20:30 — GBP House Price Index (GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, FTSE 100)

21:00 — EUR CPI Indicators (Oct) (EUR/USD, DAX, EUR/GBP)

22:30 — EUR German Buba Vice President Buch Speaks (EUR/USD, DAX, EUR/CHF)

23:00 — USD MBA Mortgage Data (S&P 500, US 10yr yields, USD/JPY)
23:00 — CNY FDI (Oct) (USD/CNH, Hang Seng, AUD/USD)

 

Thursday, November 20, 2025

00:30 — USD Housing & Trade Data (Sep/Aug) (S&P 500, USD/JPY, Dow Jones)

01:15 — USD Industrial Production & Capacity Utilisation (USD/JPY, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100)

02:30 — USD GDPNow, Crude Oil & Inventory Data (WTI, Brent, USD/CAD)

04:45 — USD FOMC Member Barkin Speaks (S&P 500, USD/JPY, Nasdaq 100)

05:00 — USD 20-Year Bond Auction / Federal Budget Balance (US 10yr yields, S&P 500, USD/JPY)

06:00 — USD FOMC Meeting Minutes / Williams Speaks (S&P 500, USD/JPY, Gold)

 

 

View the full economic calendar

 

-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

 

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