Bullish Bets on the Euro and Yen Continue to Rise: COT Report

View the latest commitment of traders reports

Market positioning from the COT report – 4 March 2025:

Net-long exposure to Japanese yen futures rose to another record high last week among large speculators
They increased net-long exposure by 37.6k contracts, their fastest weekly pace in over six months
Their net-short exposure to EUR/USD futures fell to a 16-week low of -10k contracts
Large speculators reduced longs to gold by 4.4% (-13.8k contracts) and increased shorts by 8.2% (6.2k contracts)
They also trimmed exposure to silver by reducing longs by 6.6% (-5.1k contracts) and reducing shorts by -22% (-5.6k contracts)
Asset managers increased their gross-short exposure to Nasdaq 100 futures to a2-year high

JPY/USD (Japanese yen futures) positioning – COT report:

A combination of fresh longs alongside declining shorts saw net-long exposure to Japanese yen futures rise to a fresh record high, and at their fastest weekly pace in 32 weeks. 12.2k longs were added, taking the seven-week total to 92.5k new longs added. Moreover, the 25.4k short contracts reduced last week was the fastest weekly pace of short covering in seven months.

Open interest also increased by 25k contracts to take it to within 22k contracts of the record high set back in September. Incidentally, this is also when net-long exposure peaked. Perhaps we should be on guard for a sentiment extreme on the Japanese yen.

EUR/USD (Euro dollar futures) positioning – COT report:

Large speculators were close to flipping back to net-long exposure to EUR/USD futures, with an increase of longs and reduction of shorts seeing net-short exposure fall to a 16-week low of 10.k contracts. Asset managers increased their net-log exposure to a 17-week high.

And with prices continuing to rise into the back end of the week, we have to assume bullish exposure will be the more bullish in this week’s figures. And as we’re nowhere near a sentiment extreme then it’s possible we could be looking at a higher EUR/USD and lower US dollar index in the coming weeks.

US dollar positioning (IMM data) – COT report:

Last week was the worst performance for the US dollar index since November 2022, and takes its decline from the January high to around -6%. Incidentally, this is similar to the decline in 2023 of 6% and the drop in 2024 was 5%.

But the way momentum has accelerated lower suggests to me that the cycle low is not yet in. Still, it has found support at the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio, and it is not uncommon to see prices retrace against a strong move, which could see the US dollar recoup some losses for at least part of this week.

Net-long exposure to the US dollar dell by -$6.4 billion last week to $8.9 billion, its least bullish level since October. Asset managers also reduced their net-long exposure to the US dollar index by -1.4k contracts, although they lack the appetite to be bearish as they actually reduced their shorts by -156 contracts. This is noteworthy as asset managers have been better at calling the US dollar than large speculators, who increased gross shorts by 2.9k contracts.

Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ) positioning – COT report:

Asset managers continued to shy away from the tech sector by reducing gross longs by -5.6k contracts for a second week. But they’re also actively betting against it, with gross-longs rising to a 2-year high. It is also the third consecutive week of increased shorts. Net-long exposure has now fallen to its least bullish level since November 2023.

Gold futures (GC) positioning – COT report:

Both sets of traders are reducing longs to gold futures while shorts are trending higher. Yet prices remain elevated relative to their record high. This suggests that they want to see more of a pullback before recommitting to the long side, because while shorts are trending higher they dop remain low. The move lower on net-long exposure has been fuelled mostly by a reduction of longs, which I suspect will be more than happy to return to the table

How to trade with City Index

You can easily trade with City Index by using these four easy steps:

Open an account, or log in if you’re already a customer

• Open an account in the UK
• Open an account in Australia
• Open an account in Singapore
Search for the company you want to trade in our award-winning platform
Choose your position and size, and your stop and limit levels
Place the trade

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. Head and Registered Office: 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company registered in England and Wales, number: 05616586. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FCA Register Number: 446717.

City Index is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd.

The information on this website is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.