Crude oil prices remain anchored near the $100 threshold, pointing to further upside risks as the Strait of Hormuz disruption and broader Middle East energy infrastructure risks continue. Headline-driven sentiment remains volatile, swinging on Trump’s comments between de-escalation efforts, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and renewed threats toward Iran.
This conflict is expected to remain the primary driver of crude oil and global markets as we move into Q2 2026, with the potential for amplified moves should key economic indicators align with prevailing market fears.
- German CPI rises to two-year highs, 0.2% -> 1.1%, amid increasing energy costs
- Eurozone core CPI rises to one-year highs near 2.5%, up from 1.9%
Market attention now turns to US ISM PMI, ADP employment data, and Non-Farm Payrolls to further assess the impact of the US–Middle East conflict on inflation and labor markets.
Key Levels to Watch
- WTI: close above 110, below 89 (Click here for the Q2 2026 outlook)
- Gold: close above 4680, below 4200
- Dollar: close above 100.60, below 98 (Click here for the latest DXY analysis)
These levels represent key thresholds for potential structural shifts. A move above 110 in crude could extend inflationary pressures, reinforcing hawkish central bank expectations, supporting a DXY move above 100.60, and weighing on gold toward the 4200–4000 psychological zone. On the downside, a break below key support levels would reflect de-escalation dynamics, potentially reversing the geopolitical risk premium across markets.
Crude Oil Weekly Outlook – Log Scale
Source: Trading View
As we enter Q2 2026, crude oil prices continue to point toward further upside risks in line with ongoing energy disruptions in the Middle East, despite headlines on potential de escalations. From a price action perspective, crude is:
- Holding above the 2023 highs and resistance at $91–93 per barrel
- Showing a strong rejection from the $84 zone
- Closing near the $100 mark as markets enter the fifth week of the Middle East conflict, keeping the upside scenario favored at the start of the quarter
Bullish scenario
A close above 110 on WTI and 115 on Brent would extend upside projections toward the 118 yearly high and further into the 135–150 range, signaling continued disruption to energy supply, infrastructure, and alternative routing around Hormuz.
Bearish scenario
A close below 89 would extend short-term downside risks toward the 82 and 74 zones, aligning with the highs of 2025 and previous Middle East conflict levels, where support may emerge. A break below these levels could shift price action back toward the $60 zone, in line with broader policy-driven normalization.
Gold Daily Outlook – Log Scale
Source: Trading View
On the daily chart, gold is forming a consolidation pattern with higher lows from the 4080 level and stable highs below the 4660 resistance. This structure resembles the setup seen after the February rebound into the March 2026 highs, leaving two scenarios in focus: a breakdown below trendline support or a breakout above resistance.
Bullish scenario
A close above 4660 would open the path toward 4800 and 4980, where pullback risks may emerge. These levels align with the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels of the March 2026 decline. A sustained move above 4980 would reinforce the longer-term outlook toward 5250, the key barrier before extending toward the 5600–6000 range or entering another consolidation phase.
Bearish scenario
A break below the rising trendline from the 4080 lows, and below 4480, would extend downside risks toward 4300, 4180, and 4120 as potential support zones. A deeper move could expose 3500 and 3000 as longer-term accumulation areas, potentially aligning with a broader correction in silver toward the $50 zone.
Long-term levels remain critical in distinguishing structural shifts from headline-driven volatility, particularly within the context of the ongoing US–Middle East conflict and its impact on crude oil markets.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Follow on X: @Rh_waves
