CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open account
✖
News hero gradient

Crypto Forecast: Bitcoin Surge May Be a Bull Trap – December Range Still in Control

By :   Michael Boutros , Sr. Technical Strategist
January 7, 2026 6:36 PM

Bitcoin Technical Forecast: BTC/USD Weekly & Daily Trade Levels

  • Bitcoin breakout of November downtrend surges more than 8.6% into the January open
  • BTC/USD five-day rally halted at confluent resistance- December range remain intact
  • Despite the near-term breakout attempt, the broader structure keeps bulls vulnerable while below range resistance, with downside risk still prominent near-term.

Bitcoin has surged into the January open with five-day rally extending than 13% off the December low. The breakout of the November downtrend has yet to escape the confines of the December opening-range and the broader structure keeps bulls vulnerable as long as price remains capped below range resistance. The focus now turns to whether this surge can transition into a sustained breakout or if the rally ultimately proves to be a bull trap, opening the door for renewed downside pressure. Battle lines drawn on the BTC/USD technical charts.

Bitcoin Price Chart – BTC/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; BTC/USD on TradingView

In last month’s Cryptocurrency Forecast we note that, “Bitcoin is trading just below technical resistance with the December opening-range intact heading into next week- look for the breakout to offer guidance here. From a trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to the 94,236 IF price is heading lower on this stretch..” BTC/USD rallied more than 17% off the November lows and although price briefly registered an intraday high at 94,792, Bitcoin was unable to mark a daily close above resistance at 93,347-94,236- a region defined by the objective 2025 yearly open, the May low, and the 61.8% retracement of the 2025 yearly range. The focus into the start of the month is on possible price inflection off this mark with the technical outlook still tilted to the downside while below.

Bitcoin Price Chart – BTC/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; BTC/USD on TradingView

A closer look at the Bitcoin daily chart shows BTC/USD breaking above the October downtrend into the close of December with the rally failing to mount resistance for a third consecutive day. Yearly-open support now rests at 87,496 and is backed closely by the 61.8% retracement of the November rally and the December low-day close (LDC) at 85,982-86,291. Key support remains unchanged at 83,712-84,00 – a region defined by the 2025 low-week close (LWC) and the 38.2% retracement of the 2022 advance. Losses below this threshold would threaten resumption of the multi-month downtrend with the next major technical consideration eyed at the 2025 weekly low-close and the 2025 low-day close at 78,342-79,127.

A topside breach / weekly daily close above this key pivot zone would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place and a larger trend reversal is underway. Such a scenario would shift the focus back towards subsequent resistance objectives at the 38.2% retracement of the October decline and the June swing low at 98,008/240 and the June low 105,130.

Bottom line: Despite a near-term breakout into the close of the year, Bitcoin remains within the objective December opening-range and the focus remains on a breakout in the weeks ahead for guidance. From a trading standpoint, the bulls remain vulnerable while below 94,263 with a break below 83,712 needed to fuel the next major leg of the Bitcoin decline.

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. Head and Registered Office: 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company registered in England and Wales, number: 05616586. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FCA Register Number: 446717.

City Index is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd.

The information on this website is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.

© City Index 2026