Crypto Technical Analysis: Is the recent recovery still not enough?

The second week of June comes to an end, and the main cryptocurrencies are showing a mild price stabilization after the strong selling bias seen in previous weeks. Although some prices have tried to recover ground, the move still does not confirm consistent buying pressure.

For now, this behavior seems to reflect more of an indecision phase than a clear trend change. If demand fails to strengthen over the coming sessions, this dynamic could continue to shape short-term price action across the crypto market.

Performance of major cryptocurrencies

Source: Data - StoneX, Tradingview

• During the week, most cryptocurrencies managed to post mild recoveries compared with last week’s closing prices. In this scenario, Dogecoin remains the most stable cryptocurrency in the short term, with a gain of +5.17%, positioning it as the asset that has recovered the most ground recently. On the other hand, the only cryptocurrency that failed to regain strength was Litecoin, which ends the week with a -1.95% decline. Despite these recoveries, the gains remain moderate and, rather than confirming a relevant buying bias, they continue to point to an indecision phase in the crypto market.
   

• Looking at the average performance over the last 10 weeks, consistent weakness remains evident across major cryptocurrencies. All of them continue to show relevant declines, indicating that medium-term selling pressure has not fully disappeared. In this context, Cardano remains the most affected cryptocurrency, with a loss of -31.45%, while Bitcoin has tried to show greater relative stability, with a decline of -5.26%. Even so, medium-term weakness remains clear, suggesting that this week’s recent recovery still does not seem strong enough.
   

• Year to date, the market still faces an important challenge, as none of the main cryptocurrencies has managed to move above its 2026 opening price. Cardano remains the weakest asset over this period, with a -49.21% decline, partly because it was also one of the most affected cryptocurrencies in the short-term last week. This reflects a particularly difficult backdrop for confidence in the asset. Meanwhile, Dogecoin has tried to maintain greater relative stability, with a -26.03% decline. Overall, the crypto market remains negative for the year so far.
   

• Bitcoin, as the market benchmark, has tried to recover ground during the week and is up a little more than 1,500 dollars compared with last week’s close. However, in broader terms, the cryptocurrency has not managed to sustain moves above the 65,000-dollar reference area. This suggests that the recent recovery reflects more of an indecision phase than a relevant buying bias.
   

• Overall, most of the market is showing a mild recovery that has given way to increasingly clear neutrality in price action. As long as new relevant highs fail to appear, this environment could continue to highlight a marked indecision phase and even open the door to the formation of short-term sideways ranges across the market.

Colors from red to green – Red for negative correlations and green for positive correlations

Source: Data - StoneX, Tradingview

From a correlation standpoint, the strong positive relationship between the main cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin continues to stand out. Now, all coefficients remain above 0.9, reflecting a strong positive relationship between BTC movements and the rest of the market over the last 20 trading sessions. It is important to remember that correlation coefficients can change over time.

This behavior shows that the broader crypto market has generally followed Bitcoin’s dynamic, trying to stop deeper declines and maintain some short-term stability. However, no cryptocurrency appears to be showing enough buying strength to move away from the neutral scenario that BTC has marked in recent sessions. For now, the recent calm still does not point to a stronger recovery potential.

In this context, even though some cryptocurrencies are trying to hold a degree of stability, the lack of appeal in the crypto market remains evident. If BTC fails to regain strength over the coming sessions, the current neutrality could continue to affect the broader market and reinforce the feeling of indecision during the next trading sessions.

 

Bitcoin remains trapped in a bearish trend

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

Despite Bitcoin’s recent recovery attempts, the move still appears insufficient to reflect relevant buying pressure. For now, the price has not managed to challenge the major bearish trendline, which has remained the dominant pattern for several months. Until more important bullish moves appear, this structure could remain the main chart pattern and continue to guide BTC price action over the coming sessions.

Indicators:

• Now, RSI has started to move meaningfully above the 30 area, signaling a pause in the market’s selling impulses. However, the indicator still does not show a relevant increase in buying momentum. Meanwhile, MACD keeps its histogram too close to the 0 line, suggesting loss of strength and balance in the behavior of the moving averages. Together, both indicators continue to highlight an indecision phase that could remain in place in the short term.

Key levels:

• 71,800 USD – Important resistance: Recent high area that stands as the most relevant upside barrier to watch. Price action moving toward this level could reactivate a buying bias that has lost strength and start to put the bearish trendline formation at risk over the coming weeks.
   
• 64,800 USD – Near-term barrier: Recent neutral level that previously acted as a low area on the chart. This point could serve as a tentative barrier if bullish corrections appear over the coming sessions.
   
• 60,700 USD – Definitive support: Relevant low area not seen since October 2024 and close to important psychological levels. Consistent moves below this point could continue to reinforce a dominant selling bias and extend the current bearish trendline over the following weeks.

 

Ethereum does not show a relevant recovery

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

Although Ethereum was one of the cryptocurrencies that recovered the most during the week, the mild short-term bullish bias still does not seem strong enough to challenge the major bearish trendline. As in Bitcoin, this structure remains the dominant technical factor and has been relevant over the last several months of trading. For this reason, if buying pressure fails to recover more clearly, the longer-term weakness dynamic could remain important over the coming sessions.

Indicators:

• The setup is quite similar to what was seen in Bitcoin. RSI movements show a relevant pause compared with the selling pressure seen in previous weeks, but for now, the indicator line does not show enough strength to highlight an important buying bias. At the same time, MACD remains around the neutral 0 level, suggesting balance in the strength of short-term moving averages and an indecision phase that could continue to matter for Ethereum over the coming sessions.

Key levels:

• 2,081 – Important resistance: Relevant high level located above the major bearish trendline and aligned with the barrier marked by the 50-period simple moving average. Price moves above this level could put the broader bearish formation at risk and open the door to a dominant buying bias over the coming weeks.
   
• 1,817 – Near-term barrier: Relevant pullback level that previously acted as the lower area of an important sideways range. This point could act as a tentative barrier if short-term bullish corrections start to form.
   
• 1,389 – Main support: Level that corresponds to the relevant 2025 low area and stands as the most important downside barrier to watch. Price moves below this level could bring back dominant selling pressure and generate a significant extension of the major bearish trendline over the following weeks.
   

Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25