CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open account
✖
News hero gradient

EUR/USD, EUR/JPY Forecast: Euro Surges as Trump Signals Iran Deal

By :   David Scutt , Market Analyst
April 8, 2026 12:09 AM
  • Trump signals ceasefire, outlines path to end Iran war
  • Euro lifts as energy disruption fears begin to ease
  • EUR/USD breaks higher, tests key moving average cluster
  • EUR/JPY clears resistance, momentum favours further upside

Donald Trump has signalled the US and Iran may be nearing a lasting deal to end the Iran war, posting on Truth Social moments ago that he has agreed to a two-week ceasefire, conditional on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. He also said the US has received a “workable” 10-point proposal from Tehran, adding that almost all key points of contention have already been agreed, with the two-week window intended to finalise the agreement.

That marks a clear break from previous deadline extensions. Earlier delays were framed around buying time or allowing talks to continue. This time, Trump is pointing to an agreed framework already in place, suggesting the conflict may be approaching its end unless final details fail to be resolved.

For Europe, the implications are extremely positive. As a major energy importer, the region has been hit hard by the disruption to oil flows, with the Strait of Hormuz sitting at the centre of it. If it stays open and supply starts to normalise, the pressure from elevated energy prices and supply disruptions begins to ease.

That’s why the euro is one of the big winners from the latest de-escalation, paving the way for potential upside against the dollar and across the crosses. That’s already playing out on the charts.

EUR/USD Breakout Tests Key Resistance Cluster

Source: TradingView

EUR/USD has broken from the triangle compression structure it had been coiling within for well over a month, even before Trump’s Truth Social post, with the announcement now helping extend the bullish breakout.

The price is now pushing into a key test immediately overhead, with the 50, 100 and 200-day moving averages converging around 1.1683, a level that has also acted as both support and resistance in recent months. If the price can clear that zone, it would likely embolden bulls to target a move towards 1.1768 and 1.1837, levels that have previously capped and supported moves.

If the price fails to break higher, former triangle resistance may flip to support, making it the immediate downside level to watch.

The oscillators are neutral overall, placing greater emphasis on price action to guide setup selection.

EUR/JPY Triangle Break Clears the Way Higher

Source: TradingView

EUR/JPY has broken decisively higher from its ascending triangle, clearing resistance at 184.50 and taking out the February 25 high of 184.80.

That level now flips to support, providing a clean level to lean against for longs while the current risk-on tone holds.

RSI (14) and MACD favour a bullish bias, shifting the focus towards buying dips and breakouts, especially with the price holding well above key moving averages and the prior sequence of lower highs now broken.

The February 9 high of 186.23 is the first upside target, followed by the 2026 high at 186.90.

While Japan shares some similarities with Europe as a major energy importer, the yen remains more sensitive to shifts in global risk sentiment given its role as a funding currency, leaving the current backdrop favouring euro outperformance against the yen.

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. Head and Registered Office: 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company registered in England and Wales, number: 05616586. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FCA Register Number: 446717.

City Index is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd.

The information on this website is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.

© City Index 2026