CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open account
✖
News hero gradient

Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Breakout Hits Resistance- Bulls Eye Reset Ahead

By :   Michael Boutros , Sr. Technical Strategist
December 4, 2025 7:21 PM

Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Short-term Trade Levels

  • EUR/USD breakout extends eight-day rally to seven-week highs before stalling at confluent resistance
  • Threat for near-term inflection within multi-week uptrend
  • Focus shifts to whether price pulls back to reset momentum or consolidates for another push higher
  • Resistance 1.1679, 1.17, 1.1730/47 (key)- Support 1.1634/45, 1.1589-1.16, 1.1575 (key)

Euro is set to snap an eight-day rally with EUR/USD stalling into uptrend resistance today. The advance carried the pair to seven-week highs, but building momentum divergence now puts the focus on whether price will pull back to reset or consolidate for another breakout attempt. While the broader structure remains constructive, the near-term outlook hinges on the reaction off this resistance zone into the start of the month. Battle lines are drawn on the Euro short-term technical charts.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Euro Short-term Technical Outlook we noted that EUR/USD was, “threatening downside exhaustion here and the risk remains for a larger recovery within the multi-month downtrend. From a trading standpoint, the immediate focus is on a breakout of the weekly opening-range for guidance.” That ended up being the monthly low in EUR/USD with re-test and rebound off support last week now extending nearly 1.9% off the November low. The rally cleared the September downtrend into the start of week with the advance marking an eight-day rally yesterday to seven-week highs. The bulls exhausted into confluent resistance today at the 100% extension of the November advance at 1.1679 and the near-term focus is on possible inflection off this threshold.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Euro price action shows EUR/USD trading within the confines of an ascending channel extending off the late-November low with Euro breaking out of the weekly opening-range yesterday. Near-term momentum divergence suggests the immediate advance may be vulnerable here, but the outlook remains constructive while within this formation.

Initial support now rests at 1.1634/45- a region defined by the November high-day close (HDC), the 38.2% retracement of the September decline, and the 9/25 swing low. Ultimately a break below this channel would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place with subsequent support seen at the weekly low / 38.2% retracement of the November advance at 1.1590-1.16 and the 50% retracement at 1.1575. Note that the October trendline (former channel resistance) converges on this level next week and losses below this slope would threaten resumption of the broader downtrend (bullish invalidation).

A topside breach here exposes the 1.17-handle, with the next major technical consideration eyed at the October HDC and the 61.8% retracement of the decline off the yearly high at 1.1730/47. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

 

Bottom line: The Euro breakout has extended into near-term uptrend resistance and may be vulnerable to a pullback within the multi-week uptrend. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to channel support IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1.1679 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.

Keep in mind we get the release of Eurozone GDP data and the September Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) tomorrow with the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on tap next week. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Euro Weekly Technical Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term EUR/USD trade levels.

Key EUR/USD Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. Head and Registered Office: 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company registered in England and Wales, number: 05616586. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FCA Register Number: 446717.

City Index is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd.

The information on this website is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.

© City Index 2026