CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open account
✖
News hero gradient

Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Rally Fades at Major Resistance—Next Move Critical

By :   Michael Boutros , Sr. Technical Strategist
May 2, 2026 11:00 PM

Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • EUR/USD has stalled after a strong rebound, failing to break a major resistance zone for the past four-weeks.
  • This key pivot-zone has defined market direction for the past eleven-months.
  • A topside breakout would fuel the March recovery and open further upside while failure to hold support would signal the threat for downtrend resumption
  • Resistance 1.1746/75 (key), 1.1917, 1.2020- Support ~1.1639, 1.1578/98 (key), 1.1355/94

EUR/USD is showing signs of fatigue after a strong recovery, with price stalling just below a major resistance zone that has acted as a key inflection point in recent months. The inability to break higher highlights a loss of near-term momentum, shifting focus to whether this consolidation resolves lower or if buyers can regain control. The next move is likely to prove decisive in shaping the broader trend heading into May. Battle lines drawn on the EUR/USD weekly technical chart.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Euro Technical Forecast we noted that EUR/USD was trading, “in a range just below confluent resistance at the median-line - look for the breakout. From a trading standpoint, the risk remains weighted to the downside while below the yearly moving average…” Euro broke higher the following week with the rally extending more than 3.8% off the yearly low. The advance faltered at pivotal resistance in mid-April around 1.1746/75- a region defined by the objective yearly open, the 2025 high-week close (HWC), and the 2025 high-close. Note that the 61.8% retracement of the yearly pitchfork converges on this threshold over the next few weeks. This region has been a critical inflection zone since June, and the focus is on a reaction off this zone heading into May trade.

Initial weekly support now rests with the 52-week moving average, currently near ~1.1639. More meaningful support rests with the 61.8% retracement of the March rally and the January close low at 1.1578/98. Note that the median-line rests just lower and a break / close below this slope is needed to fuel resumption of the broader downtrend. Beyond the yearly low, the next major technical consideration rests at the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 advance, the April high close, and July swing low at 1.1355/94.

A topside breach / weekly close above this major pivot zone exposes key resistance levels at the 100% extension of the 2022 advance and the 2025 swing high at 1.1917/19 and the 38.2% retracement of broader the 2008 decline at 1.2020. Both these levels remains areas of interest for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

Bottom line: EUR/USD is trading just below a key pivot zone around the yearly open for a fourth-consecutive week. The focus is on a reaction off this region early in the month with the March rally vulnerable while below. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to the 52-week moving average IF price is heading for a breakout on this stretch with a close above 1.1775 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.

Keep in mind we get the release of key U.S. labor market reports next week with the ADP employment and the Non-Farm Payrolls on tap. Stay nimble into the May opening-range and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Euro Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.

Key Euro / US Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. Head and Registered Office: 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company registered in England and Wales, number: 05616586. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FCA Register Number: 446717.

City Index is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd.

The information on this website is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.

© City Index 2026