CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open account
✖
News hero gradient

Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Range Breakout in Focus Ahead of Fed Decision

By :   Michael Boutros , Sr. Technical Strategist
December 8, 2025 7:27 PM

Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Euro rallies more than 1.8% off November lows- pressing into the upper bounds of a well-defined multi-week range
  • EUR/USD range-breakout to set the tone into the close of the year- Fed on tap
  • Resistance 1.1641, 1.1679 (key), 1.1747/75- Support 1.1497-1.15 (key), 1.1394, 1.1228/54

Euro is trading into the upper bounds of a well-defined multi-week range as EUR/USD extends into resistance ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision. The December opening-range has taken shape, and the breakout from this key zone will be critical in determining the next directional move in the pair. While the broader structure remains constructive, the immediate focus is on a resolution of this compression pattern for guidance into the close of the year. Battle lines drawn on the Euro weekly technical chart heading into the Fed.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Euro Technical Forecast we noted that EUR/USD had, “rebounded off uptrend support with the recovery now testing initial resistance- watch the weekly close with respect to 1.1641.” Euro rebounded nearly 1.9% off those lows with price registering a weekly close at the 38.2% retracement of the September decline at 1.1641 on Friday. The focus now shifts to the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday, and the focus is on breakout of this multi-week range just above support.

Note that the 100% extension of the November rally is eyed at 1679 and a weekly close above this level would nullify the threat this advance being a near-term correction and shift the focus back towards key resistance at 1.1747/78. This region is defined by the 2025 high-week close (HWC), the 61.8% retracement of the September decline, and the 2025 high-close. And advance beyond this threshold would threaten another test of the yearly highs with subsequent resistance eyed at the 100% extension of the 2022 advance at 1.1917 and the 38.2% retracement of the broader 2008 decline at 1.2019.

Weekly support remains unchanged at 1.1497-1.1505- a region defined by the March 2020 high, the 2022 swing high, and the 78.6% retracement of the July advance. A break / weekly close below this threshold would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place, and a larger trend reversal is underway. Subsequent support objectives eyed at the April high-close at 1.1394 and the 2024 HWC / 38.2% retracement of the yearly range at 1.1228/54- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

 

Bottom line: Euro is trading in a well-defined range with EUR/USD trading into the upper bounds this week ahead of major event risk. Look for the breakout to offer guidance into the close of the year. From a trading standpoint, the immediate focus is on a breakout of the embedded December opening-range- losses would need to be limited to the 1.1589 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1.1679 needed to fuel the next leg of the rally.

Keep in mind we get the release of the FOMC interest rate decision on Wednesday. The focus will be on the Fed’s updated Summary of Economic Projections, and the interest rate dot-plot will be critical as investors adjust the outlook for monetary policy heading into 2026. As of now, Fed Fund Futures are nearly fully priced for a cut this week (87%) with the next rate cut expected in April. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Euro Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.

Key Euro / US Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. Head and Registered Office: 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company registered in England and Wales, number: 05616586. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FCA Register Number: 446717.

City Index is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd.

The information on this website is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.

© City Index 2026