Euro Weekly Forecast into ECB: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY

The backdrop in EUR/USD is likely to be determined at least partially by the time frame with which the trader or analyst is looking. From a fundamental basis, there’s been periods where the backdrop has appeared to be divorced from the price action such as the sliding sell-off in March even as the European Central Bank was widely considered to be on the way to rate hikes. But, realistically, it was the confusion around oil prices and the implications around that which was likely driving the waves, and as we go into next week, in which we’ll get both European CPI data and a European Central Bank rate decision, EUR/USD can be justified in either direction depending on the vantage point that it’s being looked at.

From the weekly chart, we have price re-testing a massive area of importance, the same 76.4-78.6% expanse from the 2021-2022 major move, a zone that’s been in-play for more than nine months now as the massive rally of 2025 met it’s match at that zone.

From the below chart, it looks like a stall at a lower-high following a lower-low, thereby keeping the door open for sellers to make a push until or unless resistance can be tested through.

EUR/USD Weekly Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

EUR/USD Daily

From the daily, and this is what I had looked at in the USD article on Friday, this is simpler to justify on the long side given the recent higher-high and the pullback that, so far, has held support around the 76.4% retracement of the move looked at above. There’s even scope for deeper support, to around 1.1628-1.1655, which can keep the door open for bullish continuation scenarios.

Key resistance at this point is the same 1.1835 level that held the highs right around when the USD was probing for support around the 97.94 Fibonacci level.

EUR/USD Daily Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

EUR/USD Intra-Day

From the four-hour chart, we can see that the bounce is still young and it’s the 1.1748-1.1766 zone that stands out as an area that bulls can stake their claim. Buyers would need to press above that to make a more convincing move, which would then open the door for a re-test of resistance at 1.1835, and perhaps more beyond that level.

For next week, I’m considering EUR/USD as one of the more attractive backdrops for USD-weakness and the daily chart above is a big reason why.

EUR/USD Four-Hour Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

EUR/JPY

Next week is big for the Yen with the Bank of Japan rate meeting earlier in the week, and as we came into last week, the EUR/JPY pair was in the midst of a massive breakout.

For the past two weeks, however, that stunning strength has turned into indecision following the bull pennant breakout.

EUR/JPY Weekly Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

EUR/JPY Daily

As I looked at in the US Dollar article earlier, I think the USD/JPY pair is the main push point for FX markets next week with the Bank of Japan rate decision and the prospect of rate hikes from the BoJ in the coming months. If Ueda sounds hawkish and frightens carry traders, we can see fast unwind. If he’s too soft and doesn’t seem ready to hike, we could see the 160.00 level tested which could spur a round of Yen-weakness elsewhere.

Looking at EUR/JPY in a vacuum, and it looks like there could be a deeper pullback as horizontal support and lower-highs makes for a short-term descending triangle formation. That wouldn’t necessarily have to turn into a full-fledged reversal, as it may simply be a pullback in the broader bullish trend that opens the door for re-test of the 185.00 level.

EUR/JPY Daily Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

--- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro