Speculative positioning across FX futures continues to rotate away from the US dollar, with traders accelerating bearish bets while selectively adding exposure to the euro and Canadian dollar. The latest COT report shows USD sentiment reaching its most bearish level since July, even as positioning in several majors pushes toward multi-year extremes.
While large speculators have driven much of the recent momentum in EUR/USD and USD/CAD futures, asset managers appear more cautious, favouring consolidation over outright trend extension. That divergence raises the risk of near-term pauses or retracements, particularly where positioning has become crowded.
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- Australian Dollar Outlook: Rates Lead AUD/USD, Options Signal Risk
USD Bearish Positioning Deepens as EUR and CAD Futures Attract Inflows
Large Speculator Positioning from the COT report
Source: CFTC, CME, LSEG
- Futures traders increased net-short exposure to the US dollar by $9.5bn to -$17.9bn
- Asset managers and large speculators remain net-short USD index futures, though large specs trimmed exposure to just -852 contracts
- EUR/USD futures recorded the largest weekly shift, with large speculators increasing net-long exposure by 31.2k contracts
- Large speculators flipped to net-long Canadian dollar futures for the first time since July 2023
- Gross-long exposure to GBP/USD futures rose ahead of the BOE meeting, though a dovish hold and renewed concerns around PM Keir Starmer later weighed on the pound
- Large speculators remained net-long AUD/USD futures for a second week, with gross longs climbing to a 13-year high
- Asset managers increased net-long exposure to yen futures to a four-week high, while large speculators trimmed net-shorts to a four-week low
Asset Manager Positioning | COT Report
FX Futures Positioning | COT Report (IMM Data)
US Dollar Speculative Futures (All) Positioning| COT Report
Net-short USD exposure increased by $9.5bn last week, marking the fastest build in bearish positioning since July 2024. It was the second consecutive week of rising net-short exposure, pushing US dollar sentiment to its most bearish level since July.
Futures traders remain net-short the US dollar index (right). Asset managers hold a net-short position of around 3.7k contracts, while large speculators have pared their exposure to just 852 net-short contracts. As seen through much of last year, asset managers have generally been on the right side of USD trends more often than large speculators — a divergence worth monitoring.
Source: CFTC, CME, LSEG
EUR/USD Futures Positioning | COT Report
Net-long exposure to EUR/USD futures rose to its most bullish level since July 2023 among large speculators. Gross longs climbed to a record high while short positions were once again trimmed. Although a shooting star reversal formed two weeks ago, last week’s price action delivered only a very shallow pullback even as bullish positioning continued to build.
That could suggest large speculators are positioning for another leg higher. Asset managers, however, appear less convinced. Net-long exposure was effectively flat, with longs reduced by 11k contracts (-2%) and shorts trimmed by 12k contracts (-8.2%), pointing to consolidation rather than fresh conviction.
Source: CFTC, CME, LSEG
USD/CAD Futures Positioning | COT Report
The case for a stronger Canadian dollar continues to build, with Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem pushing back against further rate cuts over concerns they could reignite inflation. The easing cycle now looks effectively over, which should help underpin the CAD if risk appetite and oil prices remain supportive.
Large speculators flipped to net-long Canadian dollar futures for the first time since July 2023, albeit by a modest 2k contracts. Gross short positions fell by a further 10k last week, while gross longs were broadly unchanged. With gross longs already extended at a 4.5-year high, the bullish CAD narrative may need a brief pause. That leaves room for a near-term rebound in USD/CAD before downside pressure potentially resumes.
Source: CFTC, CME, LSEG
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-- Written by Matt Simpson
Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge
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