FX Futures Positioning: US Dollar, EUR/USD, USD/CAD | COT report

Speculative positioning across FX futures continues to rotate away from the US dollar, with traders accelerating bearish bets while selectively adding exposure to the euro and Canadian dollar. The latest COT report shows USD sentiment reaching its most bearish level since July, even as positioning in several majors pushes toward multi-year extremes.

While large speculators have driven much of the recent momentum in EUR/USD and USD/CAD futures, asset managers appear more cautious, favouring consolidation over outright trend extension. That divergence raises the risk of near-term pauses or retracements, particularly where positioning has become crowded.

View related analysis:

USD Bearish Positioning Deepens as EUR and CAD Futures Attract Inflows

Large Speculator Positioning from the COT report

Source: CFTC, CME, LSEG

Futures traders increased net-short exposure to the US dollar by $9.5bn to -$17.9bn
Asset managers and large speculators remain net-short USD index futures, though large specs trimmed exposure to just -852 contracts
EUR/USD futures recorded the largest weekly shift, with large speculators increasing net-long exposure by 31.2k contracts
Large speculators flipped to net-long Canadian dollar futures for the first time since July 2023
Gross-long exposure to GBP/USD futures rose ahead of the BOE meeting, though a dovish hold and renewed concerns around PM Keir Starmer later weighed on the pound
Large speculators remained net-long AUD/USD futures for a second week, with gross longs climbing to a 13-year high
Asset managers increased net-long exposure to yen futures to a four-week high, while large speculators trimmed net-shorts to a four-week low

Asset Manager Positioning | COT Report

FX Futures Positioning | COT Report (IMM Data)

US Dollar Speculative Futures (All) Positioning| COT Report

Net-short USD exposure increased by $9.5bn last week, marking the fastest build in bearish positioning since July 2024. It was the second consecutive week of rising net-short exposure, pushing US dollar sentiment to its most bearish level since July.

Futures traders remain net-short the US dollar index (right). Asset managers hold a net-short position of around 3.7k contracts, while large speculators have pared their exposure to just 852 net-short contracts. As seen through much of last year, asset managers have generally been on the right side of USD trends more often than large speculators — a divergence worth monitoring.

Source: CFTC, CME, LSEG

EUR/USD Futures Positioning | COT Report

Net-long exposure to EUR/USD futures rose to its most bullish level since July 2023 among large speculators. Gross longs climbed to a record high while short positions were once again trimmed. Although a shooting star reversal formed two weeks ago, last week’s price action delivered only a very shallow pullback even as bullish positioning continued to build.

That could suggest large speculators are positioning for another leg higher. Asset managers, however, appear less convinced. Net-long exposure was effectively flat, with longs reduced by 11k contracts (-2%) and shorts trimmed by 12k contracts (-8.2%), pointing to consolidation rather than fresh conviction.

Source: CFTC, CME, LSEG

USD/CAD Futures Positioning | COT Report

The case for a stronger Canadian dollar continues to build, with Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem pushing back against further rate cuts over concerns they could reignite inflation. The easing cycle now looks effectively over, which should help underpin the CAD if risk appetite and oil prices remain supportive.

Large speculators flipped to net-long Canadian dollar futures for the first time since July 2023, albeit by a modest 2k contracts. Gross short positions fell by a further 10k last week, while gross longs were broadly unchanged. With gross longs already extended at a 4.5-year high, the bullish CAD narrative may need a brief pause. That leaves room for a near-term rebound in USD/CAD before downside pressure potentially resumes.

Source: CFTC, CME, LSEG

View the full economic calendar

-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

How to trade with City Index

You can trade with City Index by following these four easy steps:

Open an account, or log in if you’re already a customer

• Open an account in the UK
• Open an account in Australia
• Open an account in Singapore
Search for the market you want to trade in our award-winning platform
Choose your position and size, and your stop and limit levels
Place the trade

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. Head and Registered Office: 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company registered in England and Wales, number: 05616586. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FCA Register Number: 446717.

City Index is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd.

The information on this website is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.