FX futures positioning continues to shift away from the US dollar, with traders adding bullish exposure across most major currencies. The latest COT data highlights aggressive inflows into the Australian and Canadian dollars, while positioning in the US dollar index has turned increasingly fragile.
That said, late-week price action in the US dollar — alongside evolving Fed leadership expectations — suggests positioning may be running ahead of price. With crowding risks building in AUD and CAD, the balance of risks appears to favour near-term consolidation or pullbacks rather than uninterrupted trend continuation.
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FX Futures Positioning Update: Crowded AUD and CAD Trades as USD Selling Stretches
Large Speculator Positioning from the COT report
Source: CFTC, CME, LSEG
- Traders increased net-bullish exposure to all FX majors versus the US dollar last week
- Asset managers flipped to net-short exposure on the US dollar index for the second time in four weeks
- The Canadian dollar saw the strongest weekly shift, with combined net-long exposure rising by 27.6k contracts
- Australian dollar bulls followed, increasing net-long exposure by a total of 31k contracts across both trader groups
- Large speculators flipped to net-long exposure in AUD/USD futures for the first time in 13 months
- Traders increased net-long exposure in EUR/USD futures by 32.8k contracts, with large speculators adding 20.4k and asset managers increasing exposure by 6.6k contracts
- Large speculators were at their least bearish on GBP/USD futures in 15 weeks
- Asset managers trimmed their record net-short exposure by 2.6k contracts
- While large speculators remained net-short JPY futures for a third week, asset managers increased net-long exposure by 10.8k contracts
Asset Manager Positioning | COT Report
Source: CFTC, CME, LSEG
FX Futures Positioning | COT Report (IMM Data)
US Dollar Index (DXY) Futures Positioning | COT Report
While asset managers flipped to net-short exposure on the US dollar index by Tuesday’s close, the COT data does not capture Friday’s rebound. That move followed confirmation that President Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair — a choice markets do not view as particularly dovish.
The US Dollar Index also printed a weekly bullish pinbar, marking a potential false break below 96. That technical signal opens the door to at least a minor near-term rebound in the US dollar, which could translate into pullbacks across other FX majors.
Source: CFTC, ICE, LSEG
AUD/USD Futures Positioning | COT Report
It took a combination of a plunging US dollar, surging metals and renewed RBA hike bets for large speculators to flip to net-long exposure on the Australian dollar for the first time since December 2024.
With net-long exposure now at 7.1k contracts, there is still a long way to go before positioning signals a sentiment extreme. However, with gross long exposure sitting just below a nine-year high, it could be argued that AUD/USD is approaching a near-term inflection point — particularly after the recent rally stalled around 70c, marked by a shooting star candle.
Still, I suspect bulls will view dips favourably, with expectations building for AUD/USD to push towards 72c in the coming weeks.
While asset managers have yet to flip to net-bullish exposure, positioning is at its least bearish since May, with net shorts reduced to –19.3k contracts.
Source: CFTC, CME, LSEG
USD/CAD Futures Positioning | COT Report
It’s a similar setup in Canadian dollar futures, with gross long exposure surging higher while shorts continue to trend lower. Although large speculators remained net-short CAD futures at Tuesday’s close, gross longs climbed to a 4.5-year high, reaching 77.2k contracts among large speculators and 83.7k contracts among asset managers.
In weekly terms, large speculators lifted gross long exposure by 29.8% (17.7k contracts), while asset managers increased longs by 13.4% (9.9k contracts). The sharp build-up in bullish exposure suggests positioning is turning increasingly constructive, even as net exposure remains negative.
Source: CFTC, CME, LSEG
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-- Written by Matt Simpson
Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge
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