In just two trading sessions, and as the week approaches its close, GBP/USD has fallen by more than 1.2%, signaling a clear bearish bias in the short term. Selling pressure intensified shortly after the Bank of England (BoE) decision, which failed to stabilize confidence in the pound and allowed the U.S. dollar to regain ground. As long as uncertainty surrounding the central bank’s policy outlook persists, selling pressure in GBP/USD is likely to remain relevant in the coming sessions.
BoE decision day
Earlier today, the Bank of England announced its policy decision, opting to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75%. However, the outcome did little to support the pound, mainly because the post-meeting statement indicated that current inflation dynamics still leave room for further rate cuts, provided economic conditions allow. For now, the central bank does not foresee a more aggressive stance that would involve rate hikes over the coming months of 2026.
These comments align with recent inflation data in the UK. Annual inflation stood at 3.4% in December 2025, slightly above the 3.2% recorded in November, but still well below the 3.8% levels seen in mid-2025. Although the 2% inflation target has not yet been reached, the BoE does not view this deviation as severe enough to justify additional rate hikes from current levels.
Source: TradingEconomics
In this context, markets had been expecting a somewhat more hawkish tone from the BoE. As policymakers confirmed that inflation is not seen as an immediate threat, the message was interpreted as a signal of potentially lower rates and a more flexible monetary policy stance in the UK. This outlook reduces the appeal of sterling-denominated assets, as lower rates imply weaker fixed-income returns. As a result, the BoE’s communication ultimately weighed on pound demand and supported a recovery in the U.S. dollar, which may continue to act as a bearish catalyst for GBP/USD in the short term.
The dollar offers no relief
Beyond the direct impact of the BoE decision, the renewed strength of the U.S. dollar has been a key factor behind the pound’s recent weakness. The DXY index maintains a solid upward slope, with price action approaching the 98 level and moving closer to the psychological 100 mark, reflecting renewed confidence in dollar demand.
Source: TradingEconomics
As long as the dollar continues to post this sustained recovery, it will be difficult for the pound to stage a meaningful rebound in the short term. This backdrop is likely to keep selling pressure elevated in GBP/USD over the coming sessions.
GBP/USD Technical Outlook
Source: StoneX, Tradingview
- The bullish trend remains intact: Although downside corrections have gained traction in recent sessions, selling pressure has not yet been strong enough to break the bullish trendline in place since early November 2025. As long as this structure holds, no definitive structural shift has occurred on the chart. If selling pressure eases, the broader bullish trend could reassert itself in the short term, at least until key technical levels are tested.
- RSI: The RSI currently reflects indecision, with the indicator hovering near the neutral 50 level. This suggests a balance between buying and selling momentum and could lead to a consolidation phase in the coming sessions.
- TRIX: The TRIX, a long-term trend indicator, has begun to flatten after reaching recent highs. However, the indicator remains above the zero line, suggesting that the broader bullish bias has not yet disappeared. Without stronger bearish signals, it remains difficult for a dominant selling trend to fully take hold.
Key levels:
- 1.3842 – Key resistance: This level aligns with recent highs and represents the main upside barrier. A sustained move back toward this area could reactivate bullish momentum and allow the prevailing uptrend to extend.
- 1.35477 – Nearby barrier: A recent neutral zone, associated with consolidation phases. Price action that remains within this region could maintain an indecisive environment, with no clear short-term direction.
- 1.34387 – Key support: A critical level aligned with the 50- and 200-period moving averages and the primary bullish trendline. A sustained break below this zone would signal a structural shift and could pave the way for a more consistent bearish bias in the sessions ahead.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
Follow him on: @julianpineda25
