Gold Analysis: XAU/USD moves back toward the 5,200 zone following Trump’s speech

Although price movements in previous sessions have been more moderate compared to earlier weeks, over the last four trading sessions gold has posted gains of more than 4%, with price once again approaching the $5,200 per ounce area.

For now, buying pressure has remained consistent, particularly after Trump’s State of the Union speech, where he once again emphasized the possibility of imposing global tariffs of around 15%. This scenario could limit a solid recovery in market confidence, which tends to favor gold as a safe-haven asset in the short term. If uncertainty surrounding trade tensions persists, it could become a relevant catalyst for stronger buying pressure in the coming sessions.

Is the tariff policy still in place?

During President Trump’s recent State of the Union address, he strongly defended the proposal of global tariffs near 15% on all imports entering the United States. He argued that the country has been treated unfairly in trade matters and that tariffs could help protect domestic jobs and industry. The president also stated that he would not easily back down in the face of pressure from the courts or from countries opposing his stance.

Reinforcing this message could increase structural trade risk at a global level and revive concerns about a prolonged trade conflict. This environment may heighten overall market risk perception, encouraging investors to seek more stable assets such as gold.

In fact, activity in the gold futures market has increased since the first tariff-related comments on February 20. Data comparing daily volume versus open interest show a rise in activity, with approximately 163,000 contracts traded on February 24, while open interest reached around 426,000 contracts, maintaining a positive slope. This behavior suggests that gold’s price increase has been accompanied by new long positions and stronger market participation, reinforcing the idea of stable safe-haven demand in the short term.

Source: CMEGROUP

Overall, tariff-related comments remain one of the key fundamental catalysts supporting interest in gold. As long as the tariff issue continues to generate uncertainty, it could keep adding appeal to the precious metal and support more consistent buying pressure in upcoming sessions.

Confidence attempts to recover but remains fragile

Gold typically benefits when market confidence indicators deteriorate significantly. Currently, the Fear and Greed Index stands around 44 points, remaining within “fear” territory. Although a slight recovery has been observed compared to previous sessions, the indicator still does not reflect solid stability in overall market sentiment.

Source: CNN

If the index fails to move back into at least neutral territory, it could signal that uncertainty remains present. In that context, gold may continue attracting demand as a safe haven, particularly if overall risk perception does not clearly improve in the short term.

Technical outlook for Gold

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

• Uptrend remains relevant: For several months, gold has maintained a strong upward trendline. The recent price recovery reinforces that this continues to be the dominant technical structure. Unless deeper corrections emerge that threaten this formation, the bullish bias may continue prevailing in the coming sessions.
   

• RSI: The RSI remains above the neutral 50 level, indicating that average bullish momentum over the last 14 sessions continues to dominate. If the indicator keeps advancing, it could reinforce stronger buying pressure in the short term.
   

• TRIX: The TRIX indicator also remains above the zero line, reflecting that the average strength of exponential moving averages is still in bullish territory. This supports the persistence of a dominant buying bias on the chart.
   

Key levels to monitor:

• $5,400 – Crucial resistance: Psychological level near historical highs. A sustained move toward this zone could consolidate dominant buying pressure and extend the bullish trend.
   
• $5,000 – Near-term barrier: Psychological level that has recently generated price neutrality. As long as gold fails to move decisively away from this area, a short-term sideways range and phase of indecision could develop in XAU/USD.
   
• $4,752 – Critical support: Zone aligned with recent lows, the main upward trendline, and the 50-period simple moving average. A sustained break below this level would put the current bullish structure at risk and could enable a more dominant selling bias in upcoming sessions.
   

Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25