Gold Futures Outlook: Technical Triangle Meets COT Pressure

Gold Futures (GC) continue to consolidate beneath record highs, with technical and sentiment signals pointing to a potential shift in momentum. The weekly chart reveals a developing symmetrical triangle, hinting at a bullish continuation—but the timing remains uncertain. Meanwhile, large speculators slashed nearly 50,000 contracts in net-long exposure last week, according to COT data, despite a short-term rally. That divergence suggests gold may face resistance near $3500 before any upside breakout can materialise.

View related analysis:

Gold Price Faces Key Resistance as Speculators Exit Longs

Gold Futures (GC) Technical Analysis: Weekly Chart

The weekly chart shows that gold futures remain in a well-established uptrend, although price action has been choppy since the record high in April. Prices have yet to reclaim the shooting star reversal high at 3594.6, and have since formed a series of higher lows—each marked by bearish patterns such as a dark-cloud cover and another shooting star

This evolving structure hints at a symmetrical triangle, which may resolve with a bullish breakout in line with the dominant trend. However, timing remains uncertain, and a breakout is not yet confirmed. The triangle projects an upside target around $3900 if successful.

For now, prices continue to oscillate around the high-volume node (HVN) near 3400, which tends to favour range traders—either fading into rallies or buying dips. With the weekly RSI (2) approaching overbought levels, there may be limited upside for gold bulls in the near term.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson, Source: TradingView, COMES Futures, Gold

Gold Futures (GC) Technical Analysis: Daily Chart

Gold futures rose for a fourth consecutive day on Tuesday, although bullish momentum appears to be waning, with two consecutive doji candles forming near resistance.

Importantly, price has repeatedly struggled around the $3500 region, with three clear two-bar bearish reversal patterns forming at or just below that level. Now, with RSI (2) curling lower from overbought territory, the setup suggests a potential swing high may be developing on the daily chart.

Bears could look to fade into moves within the 3447–3500 range while price remains below the 3508.9 high.
The 100-day EMA (3322.4) and July low (3319.2) offer potential downside targets over the near term.
A break below the June low (3307.7) opens the door for a deeper move toward the May low (3208.0).

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson, Source: TradingView, COMEX Futures, Gold

Gold Futures Positioning (GC): Weekly COT Report Analysis

Large speculators reduced their net-long exposure to gold futures by -29.4k contracts, their most aggressive reduction in 16 weeks. Though the move was mostly fuelled by a reduction of gross-longs, which fell by -30.7k contracts (-9.8%). Gross-shorts were marginally lower by -1.3k contracts (-2.1%).

Asset managers reduced net-long exposure to gold futures by -25.6k contracts last week, taking the total between the two sets of trades to around -50k contracts. They also reduced gross longs by -23.8k contracts (-12.2%) and increased shorts by 1.8k contracts (5.3%).

While gold prices have since achieved a 4-day winning streak, I remain doubtful that the 50k net-long exposure erased last week ahs been recouped. And that backs up my bias that gold gains could be limited over the near term, and vulnerable to a pullback on the daily timeframe.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson, Source: LSEG, COMEX Futures

View the full economic calendar

-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

How to trade with City Index

You can trade with City Index by following these four easy steps:

Open an account, or log in if you’re already a customer

• Open an account in the UK
• Open an account in Australia
• Open an account in Singapore
Search for the market you want to trade in our award-winning platform
Choose your position and size, and your stop and limit levels
Place the trade

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. Head and Registered Office: 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company registered in England and Wales, number: 05616586. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FCA Register Number: 446717.

City Index is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd.

The information on this website is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.