CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open account
✖
News hero gradient

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Bulls Cling to 4K- Exhaustion Low Ahead?

By :   Michael Boutros , Sr. Technical Strategist
November 8, 2025 5:00 PM

Gold Technical Forecast: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Gold plunge settles 8.7% off the record high with XAU/USD holding just above the 4K mark
  • While the broader trend remains constructive, near-term momentum has weakened, and the focus is on a possible exhaustion low forming in the weeks ahead
  • Immediate focus is on a break of last week’s range for guidance
  • Resistance ~4080, 4193 (key), 4356– Support 3847, 3720 (key), 3500

Gold prices are stabilizing near the 4K mark after a sharp pullback, with XAU/USD price action nearly printing a weekly doji into the monthly open. The formation underscores growing indecision in the market following a multi-week decline. Momentum has eased from recent extremes and, while the broader uptrend remains intact, the latest pullback keeps the focus on a breakout from last week’s consolidation for directional clarity. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Gold Technical Forecast we noted that XAU/USD had, “extended into record highs this week with multi-year extremes registered in momentum, range, and duration- the exhaustion risk is mounting. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 4000 IF price is heading higher on this stretch…” Gold plummeted 11.3% off the record high in the following days and despite registering an intra-week low at 3886, price has been unable to mark a weekly close below the psychological 4K mark. In fact, XAU/USD closed at 4000.57 on Friday with a loss of just 0.5% marking the third consecutive weekly decline and the smallest weekly range since mid-September.

The November opening-range is now defined by last week’s candle, and the immediate focus is on a breakout for guidance. After a nine-week stint, weekly momentum (RSI) has narrowly slipped below the overbought condition and while the broader outlook remains constructive, the threat for a deeper pullback remains below the median-line.

Weekly support rests with the 50% retracement of the late-August advance at 3847. Note that this level converges on the 25% parallel of the 2025 pitchfork and the upper parallel of the broader 2024 upslope- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Medium-term bullish invalidation rests at the 61.8% retracement, which converges on the lower parallel over the next few weeks at 3720. A break / close below this threshold would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place / a larger trend reversal is underway.

Initial resistance is eyed with the median-line (currently near ~4080) and is backed by the 61.8% retracement of the October decline at 4193. A breach / weekly close above this level is needed to mark uptrend resumption with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the record high-day close (HDC) at 4356 and the 1.618% extension of the January advance at 4553.

Bottom line: Gold remains vulnerable into the start of the month but be on the lookout for a possible exhaustion low in the weeks ahead. The immediate focus is on a breakout of last week’s range for near-term guidance here. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited 3720 for the 2025 uptrend to remain viable, with a close above 4192 needed to fuel the next leg higher in price.

Note that U.S. economic data remains limited next week amid the ongoing government shutdown and markets will be closely tracking any developments regarding the ongoing negotiations (or lack thereof). Stay nimble early in the month and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Gold Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. Head and Registered Office: 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company registered in England and Wales, number: 05616586. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FCA Register Number: 446717.

City Index is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd.

The information on this website is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.

© City Index 2026