Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Tightens Below Key Resistance

Gold Technical Forecast: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels

Gold prices coiled just above uptrend support- June range breakout pending
XAU/USD vulnerable to larger correction while below monthly high- U.S. CPI on tap tomorrow
Resistance 3419 (key), 3500, 3600– Support 3229, 3121, 3000/31(key)

Gold is attempting to mark a second weekly advance after nearly posting a monthly doji in May with XAU/USD to coiling just above trend support. The focus is on a breakout in the days ahead with the bulls still vulnerable while below the monthly high. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD weekly technical chart.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Gold Technical Forecast we noted that XAU/USD was, “vulnerable to a test of uptrend support before resumption and the immediate focus is on possible price inflection off 3333. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 3202 IF price is heading higher on this stretch…” Gold plunged more than 10.8% off the record highs the following week with XAU/USD registering a close low at 3203! The subsequent recovery now puts the focus on a potential breakout as price coils just above uptrend support.

Weekly resistance is now eyed at the 75% parallel / 78.6% retracement of he April decline at 3419- a breach / weekly close above this threshold is needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the record swing high at 3500 and the upper parallel, currently near 3600.

Weekly support rests with the 6.18% retracement of the May advance at 3229- note that the median-line converges on this threshold over the next few weeks and a break / close below would threaten a larger correction within the multi-year uptrend. Subsequent support rests at the May low near 3121 with broader bullish invalidation steady at 3000/31- both zones of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

Bottom line: Gold is coiled just above the median-line of a multi-year uptrend. From a trading standpoint, the immediate focus is on a breakout of the 3229-3419 for guidance with the bulls still vulnerable while below the 75% parallel. Ultimately a larger correction may offer more favorable opportunities with a close above 3500 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.

Keep in mind we get the release of key U.S. inflation data tomorrow with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on tap. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Gold Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.

Key US / Gold Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. Head and Registered Office: 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company registered in England and Wales, number: 05616586. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FCA Register Number: 446717.

City Index is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd.

The information on this website is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.