CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open account
✖
News hero gradient

Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Bulls Eye Breakout at Key Resistance

By :   Michael Boutros , Sr. Technical Strategist
September 25, 2025 1:56 PM

Japanese Yen Technical Forecast: USD/JPY Weekly Trade Levels

  • USD/JPY rebounds sharply off multi-year uptrend support post-FOMC
  • USD/JPY bulls now testing confluent resistance into the yearly moving average- PCE on tap
  • Resistance 148.84, 149.23 (key), 150.88- Support 147.05, 146.10/70 (key), 143.67-144.10

The Japanese Yen is poised to mark a fifth weekly decline against the U.S. Dollar with USD/JPY rallying into range resistance at multi-week highs today. The focus is on a potential breakout here after the bulls defended multi-year slope support, and the fate of the post-Fed rally now hinges on key inflation data into the close of the week. Battle lines drawn on the USD/JPY weekly technical chart.

Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Japanese Yen Technical Forecast we noted that the USD/JPY was trading just above critical support and that the, “immediate focus is on a breakout of the 146.10-148.90 zone for guidance here. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to the 2021 trendline IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the yearly moving average needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.” An attempted break of support on FOMC day failed with a sharp reversal now extending more than 2.3% off the September low.

The advance is testing resistance today at the 61.8% retracement of the August decline (148.84) with the 52-week moving average converging on downtrend resistance (75% parallel in blue) just higher near ~149.23. We are looking for a reaction off this mark with a breach / close above needed to suggest a more sigfniicant low was registered last week / a larger trend shift is underway. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the 100% extension of the April advance / July high at 150.88/91 and 151.63/95- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range and the 2023/2023 swing highs. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached

Monthly open support rest at 147.05 with key support steady at the June high close / 38.2% retracement of the April rally at 146.10/70- Note that the 2021 slope line converges on this threshold over the next few weeks and a break / close below this pivot zone would invalidate the multi-year advance in USD/JPY and threaten another bout of accelerated losses. Subsequent support objectives rest at the 2024 & 2025 low-week closes (LWC) / 61.8% retracement at 143.68-144.10 (area of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached).

Bottom line: USD/JPY rebounded off multi-year uptrend support last week with a five-week rally now approaching confluent resistance into the yearly moving average. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to the monthly open at 147.05 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a weekly close above slope resistance needed to suggest a larger turn is underway here.

Keep in mind we get the release of key Japanese inflation data tonight with U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) on tap tomorrow. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly close here for guidance. Review my latest Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.

USD/JPY Key Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. Head and Registered Office: 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company registered in England and Wales, number: 05616586. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FCA Register Number: 446717.

City Index is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd.

The information on this website is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.

© City Index 2026