Japanese Yen Technical Forecast: USD/JPY Weekly Trade Levels
- USD/JPY rally extends more than 12.7% off the 2025 low- bulls relent at resistance near the 2025 high-close and the risk rises for exhaustion / price inflection ahead
- The immediate focus is on a break of the weekly range for near-term guidance, as a move beyond this boundary would help determine whether the advance can extend or fade
- US Non-Farm Payrolls / SCOTUS decision on tariffs on tap tomorrow
- Resistance 157.70, 158.88 (key), 160.74-161.95- Support 155.03, 153.65 (key), 151.91/94
USD/JPY is stalling just below a key resistance zone into the start of the year, with price holding within a clearly defined weekly range. While the broader structure remains constructive, the immediate focus is on whether the pair can break out of this range for near-term direction. A decisive move beyond the weekly boundary would help clarify whether the advance can extend or if a pullback develops instead. NFP is on tap tomorrow and a weekly range break is likely to set the tone for the weeks ahead in USD/JPY. Battle lines are drawn on the USD/JPY weekly technical chart.
Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s Japanese Yen Technical Forecast we noted that USD/JPY was testing pivotal support near the November 2024 high-close at 155.03 and the focus was on possible inflection off the median-line. That low held int the close of the year with price rallying into resistance at the 2025 high-week close (HWC) at 157.70. The weekly & monthly opening-range is taking shape just below and the focus is on a potential breakout in the days ahead to offer guidance.
Initial weekly support rests with the November 2024 high-close at 155.03 with broader bullish invalidation now raised to the 23.6% retracement of the April advance at 156.65. Note that the lower parallel of the pitchfork converges on this threshold over the next few weeks and a break / weekly close below the upslope would suggest that a more significant high is in place, and a larger trend reversal is underway. Subsequent support seen with the 2022 & 2023 highs at 151.91/94.
A topside breach / weekly close above the median-line / 157.70 would be needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 2025 swing high at 158.88 and the next major technical consideration at 160.74-161.95- a region defined by the 2024 HWC and the 2024 swing high. Look for a larger reaction in price there IF reached.
Bottom line: USD/JPY is trading just below resistance into the start of the year, and the focus is on possible inflection off this threshold in the days ahead. Look for a break of the weekly range for guidance near-term. From trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 155 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 158.88 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.
Keep in mind we get the release of the December Non-Farm Payroll figures tomorrow with consensus estimates calling for a print of 60K and a downtick to 4.5% in the unemployment rate. The SCOTUS opinion on tariffs is also expected tomorrow, and the decision may have larger implications on broader risk sentiment in the days ahead. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly close for guidance here. I’ll publish an updated Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.
USD/JPY Key Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
