CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open account
✖
News hero gradient

Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook: USD/JPY Awaits Range Breakout

By :   Michael Boutros , Sr. Technical Strategist
September 9, 2025 1:56 PM

Japanese Yen Technical Forecast: USD/JPY Short-term Trade Levels

  • USD/JPY plunges 1.9% off September high- now testing key support pivot
  • USD/JPY monthly opening-range set just above support, breakout imminent- U.S. Core PPI / CPI on tap
  • Resistance 147.42, 148.65/74, 149.12 (key)- Support 146.54/70, 145.83 (key), 144.10/43

USD/JPY is holding within a multi-week consolidation, with price pinned just above key support. This well-defined range highlights a pivotal near-term inflection point, with traders looking for a breakout to provide directional guidance in the days ahead. Battle lines drawn on the USD/JPY short-term technical charts.

Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook, we noted that USD/JPY had set a range just above support and that, “From a trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to 149.50 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 146.28 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.” USD/JPY surged more than 1.4% into the September open before exhausting at the 61.8% retracement of the August decline at 149.12 (high registered at 149.14). The subsequent reversal has extended 1.9% off the monthly high and takes price into confluent support today at the lower bounds of a multi-week range in price- looking for a reaction off this mark this week.

Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on TradingView

A closer look at Japanese Yen price action shows USD/JPY consolidating within the August range with price testing support in early US trade at 146.54/70- a region defined by the March swing low and the 38.2% retracement of the April advance. A break lower here would expose the 61.8% retracement of the July rally at 145.83 and the 61.8% retracement of the broader April rally / 100% extension of the August decline at 144.10/43- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Losses below this threshold would suggest a more significant high is in place / a larger reversal is underway towards subsequent support at 142.25.

Weekly-open resistance is eyed at 147.42 and is backed by the December low / May high / 200-day moving average at ~148.65/73. Near-term bearish invalidation is now set to the 61.8% retracement of the August decline / September opening-range high at 149.12- a topside breach / close above this threshold would be needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend.

Bottom line: USD/JPY has carved the September opening-range just above support at the lower bounds of a multi-week range- looking for a breakout in the days ahead for guidance here. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of short-exposure – rallies should be limited to the 200DMA IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below the April trendline ultimately needed to validate a break of the multi-month uptrend.

Keep in mind we get the release of key US inflation data with Core PPI & CPI data on top tomorrow and Thursday respectively. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly close here for guidance. Review my latest Japanese Yen Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.

USD/JPY Key Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. Head and Registered Office: 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company registered in England and Wales, number: 05616586. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FCA Register Number: 446717.

City Index is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd.

The information on this website is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.

© City Index 2026