Japanese Yen, Wall Street Bulls Remain Hesitant to Commit: COT Report

The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals hesitation across key markets. Japanese yen bulls continue to retreat from recent extremes, while Wall Street positioning shows investors staying cautious despite index strength. Notably, asset managers boosted long exposure to VIX futures while trimming bets on Nasdaq and S&P 500 — reflecting persistent unease beneath the bullish surface.

Meanwhile, USD positioning remains near extremes, commodity FX shows divergence, and equity sentiment is mixed heading into mid-July.

View related analysis:

Charts prepared by Matt Simpson - data source: CME, LSEG Workspace

COT Report: Traders Pull Back on Yen, Stay Cautious on Wall Street – COT Report Highlights (2 July 2025)

US Dollar (USD): Asset managers increased their net-short exposure by 2.8k contracts, less than 100 contracts from its record high
European dollar (EUR): Net-long exposure dipped for the fist week in six, down by -3.6k contracts
British pound (GBP): Net-long exposure was lower for a third week, down -3k contracts from the prior week
Japanese yen (JPY): Net-long exposure was trimmed by -5k contacts
Australian dollar (AUD): Net-long exposure increased by 2.3k contracts
Canadian dollar (CAD): Net-short exposure increased by 10.2k contracts, with gross shorts rising 9% (7.2k contracts) and longs reduced by -9% (-4.5k contracts)
Swiss franc (CHF): Net-short exposure increased for a second week, by 2.9k contracts from the prior week
New Zealand dollar (NZD): Large speculators were net-long for a second week, though asset managers trimmed their net-long exposure from their 5-year high
Gold (GC): Large speculators increased net-long exposure by 5.2k contracts
Crude Oil (WTI): They also increased net-long exposure to crude oil by 1.7k contracts

US Dollar Positioning (IMM Data): Weekly COT Report Analysis

Asset managers were not ready to give up their short bets against the US dollar heading into the long weekend, with net-short exposure rising to within 100 contracts of a record level of bearish exposure. Gross shorts are also rising among asset managers and large speculators and both sets of traders remain net short.

However, with the US dollar index having risen for the past four days and Trump’s tariffs regaining the limelight, we could see some of these bears being forced to cover while a small USD counter-trend bounce plays out. Resistance levels around the 98 and 99 handles on the USD index could make for near-term bullish targets, or areas for bears to consider fading into.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - data source: TradingView U.S. Dollar Index Futures

JPY/USD Positioning: Japanese Yen Futures – Weekly COT Report

It has been nine weeks since net-long exposure to Japanese yen futures reached its latest record high among large speculators. And while net-long exposure has been retracing lower since, it remains elevated and fuelled by the combination of increased shorts against the yen and reduction of longs.

And as the US dollar is showing hints of a bounce, it could mean lower net-long exposure to Japanese yen futures in the coming weeks – which could translate to a higher USD/JPY.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - data source: TradingView USD/JPY

Wall Street Indices Positioning (S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100): Weekly COT Report

Asset managers continue to display caution when it comes to Wall Street indices, resisting the urge to chase prices higher. While some might consider record highs as overvalued, there could also be a hesitancy to chase prices into the summer months – which tends to provide lower levels of liquidity and therefore volatility.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson, Source: TradingView, CME Futures

Net-long exposure rose to a 15-week high on VIX futures among large speculators
Asset managers net-long exposure to S&P 500 futures was flat, and remain near the 2025 lows despite a strong rally from the S&P 500 futures market since April
They have shows slightly more interest in pushing net-long exposure higher on Nasdaq 100 futures, though net-long exposure remains in the bottom quarter of the range from the 2024 high to 2025 low
Asset managers increased their net-long exposure to Dow Jones futures to a 7-month high

Commodity FX Positioning (AUD, CAD, NZD): Weekly COT Report Overview

There was a slight divergence between commodity FX futures, with large speculators increasing their net-long exposure to New Zealand (NZD) futures and the Mexican Peso (MXN), trimming net-short exposure to Australian dollar futures (AUD) and ramping up shorts against the Canadian dollar (CAD).

Chart prepared by Matt Simpson - data source: TradingView

AUD/USD Positioning: Australian Dollar Futures – Weekly COT Report

There’s been little change to net-short exposure to AUD/USD futures over the past four weeks. Large speculators remain net-short by around 70k contracts — just below the 2025 highs, but not extreme enough to be considered overly bearish when compared to the 110k net-short exposure seen at last year’s peak.
With President Trump back on the tariff offensive, traders may refocus their attention on potential RBA rate cuts, which could weigh further on the Australian dollar.

CAD/USD Positioning: Canadian Dollar Futures – Weekly COT Report

The more interesting move was in the Canadian dollar, with large speculators increasing their net-short exposure by 10.3k contracts. With net-shorts now around a third of their 2024 peak, there’s ample room for bears to rejoin the trend and send USD/CAD higher — especially if tariffs continue to weigh on sentiment and prevent the Federal Reserve (Fed) from cutting interest rates.

NZD/USD Positioning: New Zealand Dollar Futures – Weekly COT Report

It seems highly likely that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will hold the cash rate at tomorrow’s meeting, given the recent uptick in inflation, growth, and business sentiment. Large speculators remained net-long NZD/USD futures for a second week, while asset managers were ahead of the curve — having pushed net-long exposure to a five-year high the week prior. Perhaps being long the New Zealand dollar and short the Canadian dollar (long NZD/CAD) could be the commodity FX pair to watch.

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-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

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