Nasdaq 100 Forecast: NDX slumps after Trump fuels Middle East escalation fears

US futures                                         

Dow futures 1.4%, S&P futures 1.5%  & Nasdaq futures 1.9%

In Europe                                                                        

FTSE 0.5% & DAX 2.2%

• US stocks fall sharply following Trump’s speech
• Trump warned of intense attacks on Iran over the next 2-3 weeks
• There was no mention of the Strait of Hormuz
• Oil jumps 7% on supply fears

US stocks tumble and oil jumps fueling inflation worries

US stocks are set to open sharply lower on Thursday, the final session before the long Easter weekend, after President Trump signalled a more aggressive military stance toward Iran.

In an address to the nation on Wednesday, Trump said he still expected the war to end within two to three weeks, but also warned that military operations would intensify over that period.

That combination has undermined hopes of a near-term de-escalation and instead revived fears that the conflict could broaden before any diplomatic resolution is reached.

Adding to the uncertainty, there was no meaningful update on the Strait of Hormuz, leaving one of the market’s biggest concerns unresolved and reinforcing the sense that the path forward remains highly unclear.

Despite futures pointing to a weaker open, Wall Street indices are still on track to post their largest weekly gain in four months, which would mark the first weekly advance in six weeks. Earlier this week, markets had rallied on optimism that the conflict might be nearing an end.

That optimism is now being tested.

A renewed rise in oil prices is also pushing Treasury yields higher, as investors reassess the inflation outlook and the likelihood that the Federal Reserve may need to keep interest rates elevated for longer.

That is a less supportive backdrop for equities, particularly for growth stocks.

Corporate news

Oil stocks are rising as energy prices move higher, with ExxonMobil and Chevron both gaining around 3% in premarket trade.

Cruise stocks are under pressure after Trump’s speech failed to offer a clear path to ending the conflict. Carnival and Royal Caribbean are both falling around 4% as investors reassess the impact of higher fuel costs and weaker travel sentiment.

Airlines are also lower, with United Airlines and Delta Air Lines down around 4%, reflecting concerns that rising oil prices will further squeeze margins.

Gold miners are under pressure as gold prices decline, with Newmont and Kinross Gold both falling around 5%.

Nasdaq – technical analysis

After breaking below the 200-day SMA, the Nasdaq found support around 22,800 and rebounded, before running into resistance near 24,000, which aligns with the October and November lows and reinforces the bearish near-term structure.

Sellers will now look for a break back below 22,800 to create a fresh lower low and reopen the door towards 22,200, the February 2025 high.

On the upside, any recovery would need to reclaim 24,000 first. Above that, the next key area comes in around 24,500, where the 200-day SMA and falling trendline resistance begin to converge.

A sustained move above that zone would improve the near-term outlook and bring 25,000 back into focus.

FX markets – USD rebounds, GBP/USD falls

The US dollar is rebounding on Thursday as safe-haven demand returns and Treasury yields move higher following Trump’s latest remarks on Iran. Today’s gains have erased most of the dollar’s declines from the previous two sessions, which had been driven by earlier optimism around a possible de-escalation in the conflict.

EUR/USD is falling as the stronger dollar combines with renewed concerns over the impact of higher oil prices on the eurozone economy, given the region’s dependence on imported energy. ECB policymakers continue to stress that they stand ready to act if needed, but have also made clear there is no urgency to tighten policy prematurely, especially after core inflation unexpectedly eased to 2.3% in March.

GBP/USD is also falling, weighed down by rising energy prices, weaker risk sentiment, and comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who pushed back against market expectations for a string of rate hikes. In an interview with Reuters on Wednesday, Bailey suggested markets may be getting ahead of themselves in pricing a more aggressive tightening path this year.

That reinforces the view that, while the UK is vulnerable to an energy-driven inflation shock, the BoE may still prefer to look through much of the initial move unless second-round inflation effects become more entrenched.

Oil jumps 7% on prolonged supply worries

Oil prices are jumping more than 7% on Thursday after President Trump said the US would continue attacks on Iran, fuelling fears of a prolonged disruption to global oil supply. Both major crude benchmarks briefly traded close to $110 a barrel, recovering sharply after recent declines.

Importantly, Trump gave no indication that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen anytime soon, and the absence of any clear ceasefire language has revived concerns that the market may have moved too quickly in pricing out geopolitical risk earlier this week.

The UK is reportedly hosting a virtual meeting involving 35 countries to discuss options for reopening the vital shipping route, although the US is not expected to participate.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ is due to consider a further production increase on Sunday, which could help ease some pressure on supply — but only if export routes normalise and the Strait reopens.

Until then, oil markets are likely to remain extremely sensitive to headlines, with the risk premium still firmly embedded.