Nasdaq 100 Leads Risk-Off as Tech Earnings Weigh, Gold Slides

Risk appetite deteriorated across global markets ahead of a key US inflation report, with the Nasdaq 100 leading losses as tech earnings disappointed. Precious metals and WTI crude oil were dragged lower, while traditional safe havens such as the Swiss franc and Japanese yen outperformed. With S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 futures now testing key technical levels, traders face an important inflection point across equities and gold.

 

View related analysis:

• Gold Outlook: Dead Cat Bounce Risk Builds Near Highs
• ASX 200 Market Outlook: CBA Surges, CSL Plunges as Earnings Diverge
• ASX 200 Market Outlook: Tech Rebound Tests Bearish Resolve
• Dead Cat Bounce Explained: How False Rallies Form in Downtrends

 

Nasdaq 100 Futures Slide as Tech Earnings Trigger Risk-Off, Gold Under Pressure

A bout of risk-off emerged across Wall Street indices and precious metals on Thursday ahead of a key US inflation report. Renewed concerns over technology sector profits saw the Nasdaq 100 lead the declines, with futures down -1.9% at the time of writing.

Cisco (CSCO) shares plunged more than -13% after posting lower-than-expected margins, squeezed by surging RAM prices. Its -6.9% opening gap was the most bearish since November 2023, and the stock is on track to form a bearish outside week.

Risk-Off Drives Gold, WTI Crude Oil and FX Volatility as AUD Lags, CHF and JPY Outperform

• Apple shares (AAPL) were off -5.3%, while Palantir (PLTR) fell -4.8%.
• AppLovin (APP) was the Nasdaq’s worst performer after weak Q4 results, dropping -18.5% at the time of writing.
• Precious metals were also caught in the commotion, with gold falling -3% and hinting at a dead cat bounce
• WTI crude oil was dragged lower amid the risk-off trade, with bears potentially eyeing a break below $62.
• The Australian dollar (AUD) was the weakest FX major, likely feeling the pinch of profit-taking after an extended rally despite lingering fundamental reasons to fade it.
• The Swiss franc (CHF) and Japanese yen (JPY) were the strongest FX majors during the risk-off session.

Source: LSEG

 

Wall Street Futures Technical Analysis: S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones

Momentum has clearly turned against Wall Street bulls, although the pullback did not come without warning. Earlier in the week, I noted that Dow Jones futures looked tired above 50k, the S&P 500 was struggling near its cycle highs, and the Nasdaq 100’s rebound had faltered within its own messy range.

In a separate video, I outlined my preference for the Nasdaq 100 to lead any downside move should a bout of risk-off emerge — which is precisely what has unfolded.

Source: TradingView, CME

 

 

S&P 500 Futures (ES) Technical Analysis

Bulls repeatedly made hard work of a breakout above 7,000, with a series of low-volatility candles printing upper wicks and forming a lower high around that key level. With a clear break below 6,900, bulls are now clinging to the 100-day EMA for support — a break beneath it brings the February low (6,750.5) into focus.

 

Nasdaq 100 Futures (NQ) Technical Analysis

While the Nasdaq 100 also printed low-volatility candles near resistance, its lower high formed considerably further below its record high relative to the S&P 500. Bulls attempted — but failed — to reclaim the 100-day EMA from below, with bearish momentum ultimately prevailing.

Given the Nasdaq 100 has led the downside move during this bout of risk-off, it remains my preferred short bias of the three, bringing the 200-day EMA (24,451) and cycle lows just above 24,000 into focus.

Dow Jones Futures (YM) Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones remains the leader of the pack, which in my view makes it less attractive for bears during pullbacks. It retains a clearly bullish trend structure on the daily chart, making it a market to monitor for potential long setups — should evidence of a swing low emerge.

Ideally, we want to see all three indices confirm one another, but for now I assume the Dow would outperform the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 if risk appetite returns.

 

 

Gold Futures (GC) Technical Analysis

Yesterday I warned that gold may have been setting up to roll over as part of a dead cat bounce, and Thursday’s sell-off suggests the tide may be turning. However, a true dead cat bounce would require gold prices to take out the February low.

Clues from futures market positioning suggest any pullback could prove limited. For now, a move down to 4,800 could be on the cards for gold bears — a break below that level brings the December high (4,620) into focus.

Source: TradingView, CME

 

 

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-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

 

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