Metals are trading cautiously as the deadline approaches, with escalation risks dominating sentiment. Should tensions intensify and the Strait of Hormuz remain closed, markets could face sharp repricing across currencies, commodities, and precious metals.
Below are the key charts and levels to watch:
- DXY: The index is holding above the 100 level, facing bullish breakout risks above the 100.60 barrier. A close above 100.60 could extend gains toward 101.80 and 104.40, adding downside pressure on precious metals and major currencies.
- Crude Oil: Prices are holding near the 100 level, with bullish breakout risks above the 115–118 resistance zone. A close above this range exposes the 135–150 zone, intensifying global inflation pressures.
- Gold: Gold continues to hold higher lows following the March 2026 drop, balancing between a potential sell-off below the 4600 and 4490 levels, or a renewed bullish leg higher confirmed by a close above 4800.
- Silver: Silver is also maintaining higher lows after the March 2026 decline to the $60 psychological level. The metal is trading at a critical edge below the 76 resistance, which caps bullish breakout potential, and above the 68 support, which—if broken—could trigger extended downside toward the $50s.
Below is a detailed breakdown of the silver chart, balancing inflation hedging dynamics, industrial (tech) demand, and US dollar pressures.
Silver Price Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
From a daily perspective, a similar pattern is emerging between the February 2026 and March 2026 lows, followed by an upward trendline connecting higher lows. In March, the rebound ultimately broke below this trendline, triggering a sell signal and an extended drawdown.
Now in April, similar risks are reappearing as price action holds near a critical inflection point. A close below the 70–68 zone would expose the metal to another sell-off toward 60, 53, and 48 respectively—levels that may present longer-term buying opportunities.
On the upside, silver needs a sustained close above the 76 level to confirm bullish continuation toward 78, 90, 100, and potentially 130.
With headline-driven sentiment dominating the market, price movements should ideally be confirmed by sustained stability beyond key long-term levels to avoid bull and bear traps.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Follow on X: @Rh_waves
