Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Weekly Trade Levels
- USD/CHF marks third test of support at ten-year lows amid continued momentum divergence
- USD/CHF risk for downside exhaustion / price inflection- key U.S. inflation data on tap
- Resistance 8040, 8103, 8229 (key) – Support 7882 (key), 7769, 7669
The Swiss Franc is back in focus as USD/CHF holds the 2025 low for a third consecutive test of critical support. The pair continues to hover at a make-or-break zone and while the broader outlook remains weighted to the downside, the focus is on a reaction off this mark in the week ahead. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CHF weekly technical chart.
Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s Swiss Franc Technical Forecast we noted that that, USD/CHF was, “trading just above support at ten-year lows with a seven-week losing streak marking bullish momentum divergence. From a trading standpoint, a good region to reduce portions of short-exposure / lower protective stops- rallies should be limited to 8040 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 7882 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.” USD/CHF rallied more than 3.1% off the lows in the following weeks but failed to mark a weekly close above resistance with a reversal candle this week once again testing the yearly lows.
Key support remains with the 1.618% extension of the May decline at 7882 and a break / weekly close below this threshold is still needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend. Subsequent support objectives are unchanged at the 2011 low-week close (LWC) at 7769 and the 2011 low-close at 7669. The next major technical consideration rests with the 78.6% retracement of the broader 2012 advance at 7573- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.
Weekly resistance stands at the July high-week close (HWC) / April low at 8040 and is backed by the 61.8% extension of the 2022 decline at 8103. Broader bearish invalidation remains unchanged at the 61.8% retracement of he May decline at 8229- a topside breach / close above this threshold would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place / a larger trend reversal is underway.
Bottom line: USD/CHF is testing lateral support again this week and while the broader outlook remains tilted to the downside, the immediate decline remains vulnerable while above. From a trading standpoint, rallies should still be limited to 8040 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 7882 needed to mark downtrend resumption.
Keep in mind we get the release of critical U.S. inflation data next week with the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) on tap Friday. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly close here for guidance. I’ll publish an updated Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term USD/CHF technical trade levels.
USD/CHF Key Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
