CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open account
✖
News hero gradient

Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Pullback Eyes Uptrend Support

By :   Michael Boutros , Sr. Technical Strategist
August 5, 2025 9:16 PM

Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Short-term Trade Levels

  • USD/CHF July breakout fails at resistance- NFP reversal threatens deeper setback
  • USD/CHF bulls eye July uptrend support- weekly / monthly opening-range breakouts to offer guidance
  • Resistance 8123, 8174/86 (key), 8246- Support 8040, 7973/87 (key), 7911

USD/CHF is coming off a monthly breakout, with price now pulling back toward multi-week uptrend support. The focus is on whether bulls can defend this level to keep the July breakout intact. Battles lines drawn on the USD/CHF short-term technical charts.

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook we noted that a reversal off the May downtrend threatened further losses and to, “look for a reaction into monthly open support- rallies should be limited to the weekly open IF price is heading lower on this stretch…” USD/CHF broke lower later that day with price briefly dipping below the monthly open before rebounding off the 2025 low-day close (LDC) at 7911. A 3% rally off the lows broke through the May downtrend with the bulls being challenged into the start of August.

The NFP sell-off sparked a decline of more than 1.7% with the August opening-range now taking shape just below resistance.  A proposed pitchfork off the yearly lows may be in play here and while the threat remains for a deeper pullback, losses should be limited to the lower parallel for the July breakout to remain viable.

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Swisse price action shows USD/CHF setting the weekly opening-range just below the objective monthly open at 8123. Key near-term resistance remains at the 50% retracement of the May decline / May low at 8174/85- a breach / close above this threshold would be needed to mark uptrend resumption towards subsequent objectives at the 61.8% retracement near 8246 and the 2023 low at 8333.

Weekly open support rests at 8094 with key support seen at 7973/87- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the July rally and the 100% extension of the near-term decline. Note that the lower parallel (blue) converges on this threshold over the next few days and a break / close below this zone would invalidate the multi-week advance / threaten a retest of the LDC at 7911 and the yearly lows at 7872.

Bottom line: USD/CHF broke out of a multi-month downtrend last week with the NFP reversal threatening to test the July breakout. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 7973 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 8186 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.

Keep in mind we are in the early throws of the August opening-range (weekly opening-range in focus now) with key inflation data on tap next week. Stay nimble here and watch the weekly closes for guidance. Review my latest Swiss Franc Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CHF technical trade levels.

USD/CHF Key Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

 

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. Head and Registered Office: 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company registered in England and Wales, number: 05616586. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FCA Register Number: 446717.

City Index is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd.

The information on this website is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.

© City Index 2026