Key Trends
- Tesla earnings are expected to decline amid rising competition from BYD and weakening EV adoption rates
- Microsoft earnings lean to the bullish side, supported by AI optimism and the Nasdaq’s and S&P 500’s push toward record highs
- Nasdaq and the S&P 500 hold near record levels, while the Dow diverges on defensiveness and missed earnings expectations from UnitedHealth
- Latest video with Stone X : U.S. Equity Rally Tested by Fed Decision and Tesla Microsoft Earnings
SP500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Weekly Outlook
Source: Trading view
With key earnings in focus this week, AI-related optimism continues to drive both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq higher. In contrast, the Dow remains under pressure following negative earnings from UnitedHealth near the 49,000 mark. This divergence keeps key technical levels and confirmations in focus, especially as markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical tariff headlines and earnings-driven volatility, pushing gold near record levels around 5,200.
The following charts are presented on higher time frames to align short-term headlines with primary frameworks and dominant trends.
Tesla Outlook: Monthly Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
While Tesla posted revenue of $28.1B in the previous quarter, current expectations point to a decline toward $24.8B, driven by intensifying competition from BYD and weakening EV adoption rates from reduced incentives. Tesla’s price action has remained in consolidation below the 490 record high since October 2025, in line with rising growth risks as the company shifts strategic focus toward autonomy.
Looking at the Tesla chart on the monthly timeframe, we can see a large inverted bullish continuation head-and-shoulders pattern stretching from November 2021 to September 2024. The bullish bias can also be supported by a trendline connecting higher lows from April 2025 through January 2026.
If this pattern continues to play out, and if Tesla can overcome competitive pressure from BYD and broader EV‑adoption concerns, then a clean hold above 500 should open the way toward 560 first, and 660 in extended scenarios. Those upside targets also align with the 100% and 127% Fibonacci extensions measured from the April 2024 low → December 2024 high → April 2025 low.
On the downside, if earnings disappoint or we close back below the 400 mark, the bias shifts lower toward 348 and then 303, which remain key support zones.
Microsoft Outlook: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
Microsoft is also due to report today after the bell, with Wall Street expecting strong results of around $80B in revenue, driven by continued 40% Azure growth and broad AI adoption across Azure and Copilot. Despite the stock trading roughly 14% below its highs, analyst sentiment remains bullish, and a solid cloud and AI performance could help reignite upside momentum.
From a technical perspective, the weekly trend remains in a bullish rebound, supported by rising Copilot and AI adoption across global institutions. Price is currently pushing back toward the 490 neckline of the double-top pattern that triggered the drawdown from July 2025 into January 2026.
A sustained hold above 500 would open the way for a move back toward record zones near 521 and 546. On the downside, if sentiment turns risk-off, a break below 460 would likely redirect the trend toward 440 and 420, which could present potential dip-buying opportunities.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Follow on X: @Rh_waves
