US Dollar, EUR/USD, USD/JPY Analysis: Weekly COT Report Highlights

The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data shows shifting sentiment across major forex pairs and commodities, with the US dollar still under pressure but off extreme bearish levels. Large speculators increased their bullish bets on EUR/USD and gold futures, while sentiment towards the Japanese yen weakened further. Meanwhile, positioning in the Australian dollar remains near the most bearish levels seen over the past year.

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Weekly Market Positioning Overview – COT Report Highlights (15 July 2025)

•   US Dollar (USD): Traders reduced their net-short exposure to US dollar futures by -$1.8 billion last week, to -$17.9 billion.
•   European dollar (EUR): Asset managers and large speculators increased net-long exposure to EUR/USD futures by a combined 18.8k contracts
•   British pound (GBP): Asset managers increased net-short exposure to GBP/USD futures by 14k contracts
•   Japanese yen (JPY): Net-long exposure fell by -12.6k contracts among large speculators
•   Australian dollar (AUD): Net-short exposure was effectively flat from the prior week at -74.9k contracts among large speculators
•   Canadian dollar (CAD): Net-short exposure increased by around 10k contracts between both sets of traders
•   Gold (GC): Net-long exposure increased by 10k contracts among large speculators
•   Crude Oil (WTI): Large speculators increased gross-shorts by 22k contracts and reduced longs by 24k contracts

Chart prepared by Matt Simpson - data source: CME, LSEG

US Dollar Positioning (IMM Data): Weekly COT Report Analysis

Traders remained heavily net-short on the US dollar last week, with futures exposure sitting at -$17.9 billion (or -$16.1 billion when isolating G10 currencies). While net-short positioning has eased by $3 billion from its record level four weeks ago, this still signals a potential sentiment extreme. That said, traders should be cautious—particularly with some Federal Reserve officials now openly discussing rate cuts, which could accelerate if political pressure mounts ahead of the election.

Chart prepared by Matt Simpson - data source: CME, LSEG

JPY/USD Positioning: Japanese Yen Futures – Weekly COT Report

Large speculators decreased their net-long exposure to Japanese yen futures for a third week, or for the 10th week over the past 11. Asset managers reduced their net-long exposure for a second week, though both sets of traders remain predominantly net-long by a combined 172k contracts.

Given net-long exposure topped out early May at a record high and has been trending lower since, this could suggest there is further downside for yen prices – which could be bullish for USD/JPY. Still, much of that likely comes down to the Fed’s ability to cut rates and whether President Trump gets his way.

Chart prepared by Matt Simpson - data source: CME, LSEG

EUR/USD Positioning: Euro Futures – Weekly COT Report

Large speculators increased their net-long exposure to EUR/USD futures to 128.2k contracts—marking their most bullish positioning since December 2023. Asset managers also turned their most bullish since January 2024. However, neither group appears to be positioned at a sentiment extreme, suggesting there could be further room to build long exposure if bullish momentum continues.

Chart prepared by Matt Simpson - data source: CME, LSEG

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