Weekly Earnings Forecast: Nvidia, Walmart, Target

NVIDIA Q1 earnings preview

Nvidia will report fiscal Q1 2027 results on Wednesday, May 20, after the market close.

The earnings come as Nvidia shares trade up 57.7% since June last year and 16.3% higher since the previous quarter. The market will be watching closely to see whether Q1 results can provide another positive catalyst for the stock after an already powerful rally.

Expectations are for revenue of $78.5 billion, up from $68.1 billion in Q4, and earnings per share of $1.75, up from $1.62 previously.

Growth continues to be driven by the strength of Nvidia’s data centre business. Revenue from the segment is projected to rise to $73.1 billion in Q1 from $53.8 billion in June 2025, underlining the scale of demand linked to AI infrastructure spending.

That strength is still being driven by hyperscalers and cloud service providers, accelerating investment in GPUs and AI data centre capacity.

However, the focus is increasingly shifting towards the outlook rather than the headline beat itself.

Markets are seeking more clarity on Nvidia’s Blackwell and Rubin chips, particularly given expectations that the next generation could significantly improve energy efficiency and lower operating costs for customers.

There are still differing views around how quickly Blackwell can scale commercially and whether supply constraints remain a limiting factor. As a result, investors will be looking for detailed updates on production ramp-up, yields, customer adoption and the revenue contribution from Blackwell.

Any commentary surrounding Rubin, expected in the second half of calendar year 2026, will also be closely watched.

The market will also want to know whether lead times for flagship GPUs remain elevated and whether supply bottlenecks are easing or still capping upside demand.

Another key focus will be China. Investors will be listening carefully for any fresh commentary surrounding US export restrictions following the recent Trump–Xi Jinping summit, particularly after reports that semiconductor export controls were not substantively discussed.

It’s also worth keeping in mind that Nvidia’s share price has often reacted negatively initially even after earnings beats, particularly when expectations and positioning are already stretched.

How to trade NVDA earnings

Nvidia has recovered strongly from the 164.20 2026 low, rallying to a record high of 236.5 before easing slightly to around 226. The pullback has helped cool overbought RSI conditions, although the broader uptrend remains firmly intact.

Buyers will look for a move above 236 to open the door towards fresh record highs, with 250 the next logical upside target.

On the downside, support is seen in the 217–208 zone, which includes the April high and the 2025 peak. A break below this area would expose the May low around 194.

Walmart Q1 earnings preview

Walmart is due to report Q1 earnings on Thursday, May 21, before the opening bell.

Expectations are for EPS of $0.65 per share, up 8% year-on-year, on revenue of $172.5 billion, up 5.5% from the same period last year. That would mark another quarter of solid top- and bottom-line growth.

The results will be watched closely not just for company-specific performance, but also for what they reveal about the health of the US consumer as the economic impact of the Iran war feeds through into spending patterns.

Walmart could benefit from elements of Trump’s tax bill, although rising fuel prices also pose downside risks by squeezing disposable income and pushing consumers further towards value-focused spending.

The earnings come just a week after Walmart announced plans to cut around 1,000 corporate jobs as part of efforts to streamline operations and remove duplicate roles.

The move highlights how focused management remains on margins as higher petrol prices increasingly pressure lower-income households, which form a key part of Walmart’s customer base.

Walmart’s low-price model is well-suited to the current backdrop. However, expectations are already elevated, with the stock trading near record highs and outperforming the broader market this year.

How to trade WMT earnings

Walmart continues to trade above its rising trendline and its 50- and 200-day SMA, keeping the broader bullish structure intact.

The price recently rebounded from the 126 support zone and has recovered towards 133, just below the 134 record high.

However, bearish RSI divergence is emerging, which is not a reversal signal in itself but does suggest upside momentum may be fading. A potential double top near 134 remains a risk.

Immediate support sits at 128 near the rising trendline. A break below there would expose 126, the 50 SMA, and the weekly low. Below that, attention turns to 121, the April low, ahead of 117, the March low.

On the upside, buyers will look for a move above 134 to create a higher high, with 140 the next logical upside target.

Target earnings preview

Target will release earnings on May 20 before the opening bell in what is seen as an important test of the retailer’s turnaround story.

Expectations are for EPS of $1.34, representing 7.4% year-on-year growth. Revenue is expected to be around $24.3 billion, implying growth of roughly 2.4%.

While CEO Brian Cornell has outlined a credible turnaround strategy, the broader backdrop remains difficult.

The US economy continues to show signs of becoming increasingly K-shaped, with higher-income households continuing to spend while lower-income consumers pull back.

That dynamic tends to create challenges for middle-market retailers such as Target, which can struggle to capture either the most value-focused consumers or the highest-income shoppers.

Part of the turnaround strategy has centred around growing higher-margin non-merchandise revenue streams, including advertising and monetisation through its digital ecosystem.

The market will also want signs that Target is stabilising discretionary demand categories after several difficult quarters.

How to trade TGT earnings

Target shares recovered from the 82.60 low to a peak of 131.8 before easing lower.

The price broke below its rising trendline and 50 SMA, falling to 116 before rebounding back above the 50 SMA. However, the recovery has so far faced rejection at trendline resistance.

That, combined with the RSI below 50, keeps sellers hopeful of further downside.

Sellers would need to break back below the 50 SMA around 121 and take out 116 support to create a lower low and expose the March low.