Yen Crosses in Focus as Policy Divergence Fades
Swiss Franc Extends Rally as Trump Talks Tariff Reduction
The Swiss franc was the strongest major currency on Tuesday after President Trump announced he is “working on a deal” to reduce tariffs on Swiss exports. Currently set at 39%, any reduction would likely support Switzerland’s export sector and, by extension, the franc. The currency also retains its safe-haven appeal over the Japanese yen, particularly as expectations for further Bank of Japan rate hikes have faded. CHF/JPY extended its advance for a third day and now sits on the brink of a new record high.
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Dollar Loses Momentum as Fed Cut Bets Resurface
The policy divergence that once propelled USD/JPY above 154 has lost momentum. The U.S. dollar’s safe-haven premium has faded as the end of the government shutdown draws near, while soft consumer and small-business sentiment reports have revived bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. This has weighed on the greenback against the euro, British pound, Australian dollar, and Swiss franc.
Chart prepared by Matt Simpson - data source: LSEG
Yen Remains Soft Despite Waning Dollar Strength
However, USD/JPY remains in a relative stalemate. Waning expectations of another Bank of Japan rate hike have left the yen broadly weaker, particularly against the Swiss franc, which extended its rally for a third day on Tuesday — with CHF/JPY hovering just below a record high.
Trading Implications: Yen Crosses Offer Clearer Setups
For yen traders, that suggests opportunity may lie beyond the dollar pair. Crosses such as CHF/JPY or EUR/JPY may offer cleaner directional bias, while USD/JPY setups could favour mean-reversion on shorter timeframes. Unless bets of a BOJ hike are somehow revived. But for dollar bears, USD/CHF may be the preferred short – at least over the near term.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: US Dollar vs Japanese Yen
The daily trend remains upward, but Tuesday’s doji highlights waning momentum near last week’s high and hesitation below the 155 handle. The 1- and 3-month 25-delta risk reversals have diverged lower even as spot prices held firm — signalling increased demand for downside protection in USD/JPY and fading confidence in further dollar gains. The 1-week tenor also remains negative, suggesting the upside may be capped near term, with bears likely to fade rallies toward 155.
Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - data source: LSEG
A bearish divergence has formed on the daily RSI (14), suggesting that momentum behind the uptrend is beginning to fade. While this doesn’t yet confirm a reversal on the daily timeframe, it’s a signal worth monitoring as price action develops.
The 154.80 swing high, just below the 155 handle, marks a potential zone where bears may attempt to fade short-term rallies. For now, I’m looking for mean reversion toward 153 — a pivotal support level that could determine the next directional move. A clean break below 153 would hint at a deeper correction, whereas a rebound from that level could set the stage for another leg higher toward the February high near 155.89.
Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - data source: TradingView USD/JPY
USD/CHF Technical Analysis: US Dollar vs Swiss Franc
The Swiss franc extended its rally for a fourth straight session against the U.S. dollar, marking the most sustained bearish run on the USD/CHF daily chart in more than 10 weeks. With the 2-period RSI at its most oversold level since July and nearby support in play, bears may want to tread cautiously in the near term.
Prices are currently holding around the 0.80 handle and the 50-day EMA, but a break beneath both would expose the high-volume node (HVN) at 0.7958 as potential support.
Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - source: TradingView USD/CHF
CHF/JPY Technical Analysis: Swiss Franc vs Japanese Yen
If you need more evidence that CHF/JPY has become a barometer of risk sentiment for forex traders, look no further than its correlation with the Nasdaq 100. This relationship isn’t direct but rather a second-order effect — stemming from the Bank of Japan’s reluctance to tighten policy as much as markets had expected.
Interestingly, CHF/JPY has often led Wall Street sentiment. The pair was already trending higher in the weeks preceding the Nasdaq’s April tariff-driven lows. With CHF/JPY now pushing toward the 194 level, history suggests the Nasdaq could soon follow with another leg higher — potentially retesting its record highs.
Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - source: TradingView CHF/JPY
Key Economic Events for Traders (AEDT / GMT+11)
09:15 AUD RBA Assistant Governor Jones Speaks (AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, ASX 200)
10:50 JPY M2 & M3 Money Stock, Reuters Tankan Index (Nov) (USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, Nikkei 225)
11:30 AUD Home Loans (Q3) (AUD/USD, AUD/NZD, ASX 200)
14:25 USD Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, USD/JPY)
17:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders (Oct) (USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, Nikkei 225)
18:00 EUR German CPI, HICP & WPI (Oct) (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, DAX)
19:30 CNY Money Supply, New Loans & Total Social Financing (Oct) (USD/CNH, AUD/USD, Hang Seng Index)
21:00 USD OPEC Monthly Report (WTI Crude, Brent Crude, USD/CAD)
21:00 EUR Eurogroup Meetings (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, DAX)
21:30 EUR German 30-Year Bund Auction (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, DAX)
21:45 EUR ECB’s Schnabel Speaks (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, DAX)
22:40 EUR ECB’s De Guindos Speaks (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, DAX)
23:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications & 30-Year Rate (Nov) (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, USD/JPY)
23:05 GBP BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks (GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, FTSE 100)
Thursday, November 13, 2025
00:00 EUR German Current Account Balance (Sep) (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, DAX)
00:30 CAD Building Permits (Sep) (USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, S&P/TSX)
00:55 USD Redbook (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, USD/JPY)
01:20 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, USD/JPY)
02:20 USD Fed Waller Speaks (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, USD/JPY)
03:00 USD Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Nov) (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, USD/JPY)
03:00 CAD Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Nov) (USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, S&P/TSX)
04:00 USD EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (WTI Crude, Brent Crude, USD/CAD)
04:15 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, USD/JPY)
05:00 USD 10-Year Note Auction (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, USD/JPY)
