Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Resistance Under Siege – Bulls Eye 7200

Australian Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels

AUD/USD has extended its rebound more than 3% from the monthly low and is now pressing into multi-year resistance.
Price is attempting to clear the 2023 highs, with weekly momentum still holding in overbought territory.
A confirmed weekly close above resistance would open the path toward 7200, while failure here risks a pullback toward layered support.
Event risk on tap: US Core PCE on Friday and Fed & RBA rate decisions next week
Resistance 7209/14 (key), 7495, 7427- Support 7109, 6942 (key), 6810

AUD/USD has recovered sharply from its early-March dip and is once again challenging a key resistance cluster that has capped prior advances. The rebound has carried price back toward levels last seen near the 2023 highs, keeping the broader uptrend intact but placing the market at a critical inflection point. Momentum remains firm, yet the pair now faces a ceiling that must be decisively cleared to extend the rally. A sustained push through this zone would reinforce bullish continuation, while hesitation here could trigger a consolidation phase after the recent advance. Battle lines drawn on the AUD/USD weekly technical chart into the close of the month.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Australian Dollar Forecast we noted that AUD/USD was, “trading just below confluent uptrend resistance and while the broader outlook remains constructive, the advance may be vulnerable while below this level near-term. From a trading standpoint, a good region to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops- losses should be limited to 6900 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 7137 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.” Aussie turned from resistance two-weeks later to snap a six-week winning streak into the start of March with price registering an intraday low at 6944 before rebounding sharply.

The advance has now extended 3.5% off the monthly low with AUD/USD attempting to breach resistance at the 2023 high close and the August 2022 swing high at 7109/37. Note that weekly RSI remains in overbought territory and keeps the momentum profile in favor of the bulls for now. The next major technical consideration is now in view at 7208/14- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the 2021 decline and the 100% extension of the 2025 advance. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Strength beyond this threshold would expose subsequent resistance objectives at the 2019 high at 7295 and the 2022 high-week close (HWC) at 7427.

Initial support now rests back at 7109 with key support and medium-term bullish invalidation raised to the 2024 high at 6943. Note that the median-line converges on this threshold over the next few weeks and losses below this slope would suggest a more significant high is in place and a larger reversal is underway. Subsequent support rest with the 2024 yearly open at 6811.

Bottom line: AUD/USD is attempting a breakout of confluent uptrend resistance here and a weekly close above is needed to keep the bulls in control. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 7109 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 7214 needed to fuel the next major leg of the Aussie advance.

Keep in mind we get the release of the January Core Personal Consumption Expenditures on Friday with the Fed & RBA interest rate decisions on tap next week. Traders will be closely eyeing the Federal Reserve’s updated Summary of Economic Projections amid growing uncertainty regarding the outlook for monetary policy. A surge in oil prices due to the ongoing war in Iran has clouded the inflation outlook, and with last week’s Non-Farm Payrolls figures showing signs of weakness in the labor markets, the Fed’s dual mandate is once again at odds. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

Australia / US Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

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