Australian Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels
- AUD/USD rebounded approaching confluent resistance as the December opening-range begins to take shape- possible head-and-shoulders formation identified
- Recent rally may be vulnerable, and the immediate focus is on the reaction to this key barrier as price approaches the 2022 trendline
- Resistance 6592/98 (key), 6651, 6723 - Support 6453 (key), 6404/20, 6357
The Australian Dollar closed November with a V-shaped recovery, and the AUD/USD rebound is now approaching pivotal resistance as the December opening-range begins to take shape. Price has not yet reached the barrier, but the push toward the 2022 trendline defines a critical area of interest in the sessions ahead. While the near-term outlook remains constructive, the reaction into this zone will be key in determining whether the advance can extend or if a near-term inflection takes hold. Traders should stay alert as momentum carries the pair toward this threshold. Battle lines drawn on the AUD/USD weekly technical chart.
Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s Australian Dollar Forecast we noted that, “from a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 6605 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 6469 needed to fuel the next leg of this decline…” AUD/USD registered an intraweek high at 6580 the following week before turning lower and although price did mark a weekly close low at 6456, the bears were unable to break below the 61.8% extension of the September decline at 6453.
The subsequent rebound has now rallied more than 2.2% off the lows and with confluent resistance now in view at 6592/98- a region defined by the 2025 high-week close and the 61.8% retracement of the decline off the yearly high. Note that the 2022 trendline converges on this threshold over the next few weeks, and a breach / weekly close above is needed to keep the bulls in control here. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 2025 high-close at 6651 and the 78.6% retracement of the 2024 decline at 6723.
A break below the weekly lows would expose key support at the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range and the 52-week moving average at 6404/20. Losses below this threshold would put a potential head-and-shoulders pattern in play with subsequent support objectives eyed at the February high-week close (HWC) at 6356 and the 2025 low-week close (LWC) at 6290. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached.
Bottom line: AUD/USD is approaching confluent resistance, and the advance may be vulnerable into the 2022 trendline- risk rises for topside exhaustion. Note that the December opening-range is just taking shape here- look for the breakout to offer guidance in the weeks ahead. From a trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to 6598 IF price is heading lower with a break / close below 6453 needed to fuel the next leg in price.
Keep in mind we get the release of the November ADP employment report tomorrow with the September Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) on tap Friday. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly close for guidance here. Review my latest Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.
Australia / US Economic Calendar
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
