Crude oil and the Nasdaq continue to trend higher, with oil stabilizing near the $100 mark and the Nasdaq pushing toward the 30,000 threshold. Markets remain focused on three key catalysts: the meeting outcome between the US and China, the debut of AI chip player Cerebras (CBRS), and geopolitical developments in the Middle East.
Stretched AI market positioning may be tested today with the IPO of Cerebras, set to begin trading on the Nasdaq following the US market open. While the Nasdaq maintains its bullish momentum, the introduction of a new AI player adds a fresh layer of volatility to an already extended sector. (For a full breakdown, see: “Cerebras (CBRS) IPO: Everything You Need to Know.”)
At the same time, ongoing geopolitical tensions are prolonging the recovery in energy markets, while rising inflation trends continue to build risks of a broader stagflationary backdrop. (Further insights on FX and inflation, see: USD/JPY Price Forecast: Is the One-Year Uptrend Still Valid?
Market Positioning Snapshot
Bullish momentum is showing signs of hesitation near key resistance levels across major assets:
- Bitcoin: near 83,000 resistance
- Silver: near 90,000 resistance
- Nasdaq: near 29,600 resistance
- Dow Jones: near 50,000 resistance
Despite rising energy and inflation risks, resilience in the tech and AI sectors is keeping broader market trends supported. However, attention is shifting toward potential momentum divergence, as markets push into overbought territory while inflation metrics reach multi-year highs. The US-China meeting is also set to influence markets in terms of trade and geopolitical deals revolving Iran.
Crude Oil Price Outlook: 2 Week Time Frame- Log Scale
Source: Trading iview
The following framework remains anchored in the Q2 2026 outlook, reinforcing the importance of long-term levels over political narratives on the price chart.
Scenario Framework:
- Bearish Scenario:
A diplomatic breakthrough, combined with a close below $91, $88, and $84, would expose prices to the previous rejection zone at $76–$74—the highs of June 2025 during prior Middle East tensions—testing the waters for a deeper crude unwind or another volatility-driven whipsaw. - Base Case:
Prolonged supply disruption keeps crude oil prices trading within the $91–$115 range. - Bullish Scenario:
Extreme geopolitical escalation could drive a sustained breakout above $115, extending toward $135 and $157, aligning with the 0.786 and 100% Fibonacci extensions of the 2020–2022–2026 price cycle.
Headline-driven volatility is one aspect of the market, but long-term price closes and sustained levels ultimately reveal the dominant trend and broader outlook for crude oil beyond short-term noise. So far, the bull trend is still intact, risking further upside ahead.
Nasdaq Price Outlook: 4-Hour Time Frame- Log Scale
Source: Trading view
The Nasdaq is currently respecting resistance at 29,600, aligning with the 50% Fibonacci extension of the move between the 27,500 low, 29,360 high, and 28,600 pullback low.
This structure is derived from an Elliott Wave framework, suggesting the index may be approaching the latter stages of a fifth wave extension from the yearly lows.
Bullish Scenario:
A sustained hold above 29,600 could drive the Nasdaq toward:
- 29,800 (0.618 Fibonacci extension)
- 30,100 (0.786 extension)
- 30,500 (1.0 extension)
The 29,800 zone (golden ratio) stands out as a key confluence level where a pullback becomes increasingly likely.
Bearish Scenario:
A break back below 29,300, 28,800, and 28,600 could trigger a sharp momentum unwind, potentially leading to a 1,000-point correction.
Conclusion
Markets remain at a critical juncture. Rising oil prices, persistent inflation risks, and geopolitical uncertainty are colliding with stretched positioning in AI-driven equities.
While both crude oil and the Nasdaq maintain their bullish structures, the risk of volatility is rising, particularly as new catalysts—such as the Cerebras IPO—enter an already crowded and overextended market landscape.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Follow on X: @Rh_waves
