The euro is approaching important technical levels against several major currencies. EUR/USD is showing signs of weakness beneath key moving averages as demand for the US dollar improves, EUR/JPY is testing a major resistance zone amid intervention risks, and EUR/AUD is showing early signs of a bullish reversal from long-term support. Here are the key technical levels and price action setups traders should be watching this week.
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Source: LSEG
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro vs US Dollar
EUR/USD Meets Resistance at Key Moving Averages
My suspicions that the US dollar may have another bout of strength up its sleeve were given a boost on Monday following yet another reversal in sentiment surrounding alleged peace talks in the Middle East. This has seen bearish momentum return around a cluster of key resistance levels on EUR/USD and potentially paves the way for the euro's next leg lower against the US dollar.
A doji formed on Friday after resistance was met at the 200-day SMA before EUR/USD retreated lower and closed around its 30 April low. The daily RSI (2) also flirted with overbought territory.
EUR/USD Bears Eye a Move Towards 1.1550
Prices rolled over on Monday to form a bearish engulfing candle, although for now EUR/USD is holding above the 1.16 handle and the 200-day EMA. If tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate and crude oil prices remain elevated, EUR/USD could be staring at a move towards the weekly S1 pivot near 1.1550. A break beneath that level would bring the 1.15 handle and weekly S2 pivot into focus for bears.
Source: Forex.com, TradingView
EUR/AUD Technical Analysis: Euro vs Australian Dollar
EUR/AUD Monthly Chart Signals a Potential Bullish Reversal
There are clues across multiple timeframes that EUR/AUD price action may be trying to turn the tide against its bearish trend from the 2025 high. The euro has fallen more than 13% since its April 2025 high, yet its high-to-low range of just 0.5% produced its smallest monthly candle on record. It also formed a spinning-top doji, warning that bearish momentum may be fading. A bullish divergence also formed on the monthly RSI (2) within oversold territory.
EUR/AUD Price Action Shows Support Emerging Above 1.62
The weekly chart shows a false break of its March low, with a bullish pin bar coinciding with bullish RSI divergence in oversold territory.
The daily chart shows EUR/AUD bursting higher in the middle of May following a failed intraday break of the March low. Prices have since retraced in an apparent three-wave move, although support has emerged around 1.62. What makes this setup particularly appealing is that it appears to be a step behind a similar pattern on GBP/AUD, which rallied from its own support level on Monday.
Given the bearish sentiment surrounding EUR/AUD and the multiple reversal signals highlighted above, EUR/AUD appears to be a credible bullish reversal candidate. Should support at 1.62 continue to hold, the technical bias favours a deeper recovery despite the broader bearish trend.
Source: ICE, TradingView
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Euro vs Japanese Yen
EUR/JPY Approaches Key Resistance Around 186
The euro may be approaching a pivotal level against the Japanese yen, although whether EUR/JPY turns sharply lower likely hinges on whether Japan's Ministry of Finance (MOF) decides to intervene in the currency market once again. Failure to do so could allow EUR/JPY to extend higher towards its next resistance cluster around 186.
EUR/JPY has posted four consecutive bullish weekly candles, its first such streak since June 2025. That said, the first three featured relatively small real bodies despite a strong bullish hammer kicking off the sequence, suggesting a degree of caution among bulls. The fourth candle, however, was far more convincing, which may lessen the significance of the earlier hesitation.
EUR/JPY Traders Watch for Yen Intervention Risk
Traders are clearly watching the 186 handle, given Monday's bearish candle respected that level. The daily RSI (2) was also deeply overbought by Friday's close, providing a technical case for a pause or pullback in the trend. Should prices move lower — presumably on the back of yen intervention — the 185 handle and monthly pivot point (184.57) come into focus.
However, if intervention fails to materialise, the path of least resistance may remain higher. In that scenario, bulls are likely to continue buying dips, bringing the high-volume node (HVN) around 186.80 and the 187 handle into focus. For now, that remains my preferred scenario.
Source: ICE, TradingView
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-- Written by Matt Simpson
Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge
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