ASX 200 Outlook: Bears To Retain Control Despite Two-Day Rebound

Hopes of a US-Iran peace deal helped lift the ASX 200 for a second consecutive session, though SPI 200 futures turned sharply lower overnight after reports Iran rejected the proposal. With futures slipping beneath weekly VWAP and the recent rebound lacking strong open interest participation, traders may question whether the latest rally was merely corrective within a broader bearish structure.

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SPI 200 Futures Slide Below VWAP as GEX Resistance Caps Rebound

ASX 200 Market Snapshot

• Hopes of a US-Iran peace deal helped lift the ASX 200 for a second consecutive session, delivering its strongest 2-day rally in four weeks alongside the widest daily trading ranges
• Financials (XFJ) and materials (XMH) have been the key drivers behind the rebound, although momentum in financial stocks faded into Wednesday’s close
• The ASX 200 is now tracking towards a bullish engulfing week and has retraced roughly half of April’s sharp selloff
• However, with resistance levels nearby and the weekend approaching after a strong rebound, bulls may need to tread carefully — especially with SPI 200 futures softer after Iran reportedly rejected the US peace proposal

Source: ASX, LSEG

ASX 200 Technical Analysis

ASX 200 GEX Levels Suggest Sellers Retain Near-Term Control

ASX 200 traders face a weak open after SPI 200 futures fell sharply overnight and slipped beneath weekly VWAP, shifting near-term risk back to the downside. The 8900 and 8850 strikes are now likely to act as overhead resistance on rebounds, while 8875 remains the key battleground level where traders may look for signs of acceptance or rejection after the open.

Source: ASX, TradingView

SPI 200 futures are sitting around the monthly pivot point, though a break beneath 8700 could open the door to the 8600 area and nearby swing lows. The recent two-day rally in SPI futures was not accompanied by a meaningful rise in open interest, suggesting bears still retain broader control after dominating positioning during the previous decline.

Source: ASX24, TradingView

• If sellers maintain control beneath 8875, downside pressure could build towards 8775 and 8750 where put support becomes more concentrated, while the 200-day EMA just above 8800 may also attract dip buyers
• If bears really take control, the 200-day EMA and 8725 major call cluster could come into focus as the next key downside support zone
• However, if bulls can reclaim 8875 and stabilise above it, the market could rotate back toward 8850 and potentially 8900 later in the session.

-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

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