British Pound Technical Forecast: GBP/USD Weekly Trade Levels
- GBP/USD has extended a strong multi-day/week rally after rebounding from key support.
- Momentum has shifted higher, but inflection risk rises as bulls drive towards major resistance zones
- A sustained push above resistance would signal continuation of the broader uptrend while failure could trigger a pullback within the current recovery
- Resistance 1.3599, 1.3685 (key), 1.3749- Support 1.3474, ~1.3421 (key), 1.3339
GBP/USD has staged an impressive recovery in recent sessions, with the pair extending a strong rally off recent lows as near-term momentum shifts in favor of the bulls. The advance follows a successful defense of trend support, highlighting a constructive tone in price action as the pair approaches a key resistance zone. This area is likely to prove pivotal in the sessions ahead, with the reaction set to determine whether the rally continues or gives way to a near-term pullback. Battle lines drawn on the GBP/USD weekly technical chart.
British Pound Price Chart – GBP/USD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s British Pound Weekly Forecast we noted that GBP/USD had, “rebounded off confluent support into the start of the month with the March opening-range now set just below the objective yearly open. Looking for a breakout in the days ahead.” Sterling broke lower that week with the decline extending 2.4% off the March high before rebounding off confluent support last week at 1.3194. Note that the lower parallel converged on the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 advance and offered a launching point for the bulls to mark the largest single-week advance since June.
The rebound has extended nearly 3.2% off the March low with the rally now approaching resistance objectives at the 61.8% retracement of the January decline at 1.3599 and the yearly high-week close (HWC) at 1.3685. Note that the median-line converges on this level over the next few weeks and a breach / weekly close above would be needed to mark uptrend resumption- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Subsequent resistance eyed at the 2022 high at 1.3749 and the yearly high at 1.3870.
Yearly open support now rests at 1.3474 and is backed closely by the 52-week moving average, currently near 1.3421. Losses below this level would threaten a retest of the uptrend. Initial support at the 61.8% retracement of the November rally at 1.3339 with 1.3194 still key.
Bottom line: GBP/USD rebounded off uptrend support with a seven-day rally now approaching key resistance hurdles. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops on a stretch towards 1.36- losses should be limited to the 52-week moving average IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1.3685 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.
Keep in mind the economic calendar is rather light this week and traders will remain focused on headlines out of the Middle East as the U.S. and Iran grapple for control of the Hormuz Strait. Things pick up next week with US retail sales and UK employment & inflation data on tap. Stay nimble here and watch the weekly closes for guidance. I’ll publish an updated British Pound Short-term Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term GBP/USD technical trade levels.
GBP/USD Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
