Bitcoin Technical Forecast: BTC/USD Weekly & Daily Trade Levels
- Bitcoin has fallen more than 15% from the monthly high, with BTC/USD breaking below the November trendline.
- BTC/USD now testing key support near December low- reaction off this mark will be critical in determining whether the decline resumes or stabilizes into consolidation.
- Resistance eyed at the yearly open with a weekly close beneath support needed to fuel resumption of the broader downtrend.
Bitcoin is poised to mark a second-consecutive weekly decline with BTC/USD losses accelerating after breaking below the November uptrend. The selloff has carried price into major support near the December low, placing emphasis on how the market responds at this threshold. While the broader structure remains under pressure, the risk rises for inflection here and the reaction is likely to shape near-term direction for Bitcoin. Battle lines drawn on the BTC/USD technical charts.
Bitcoin Price Chart – BTC/USD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; BTC/USD on TradingView
In my last Cryptocurrency Forecast we noted that Bitcoin was trading, “within the objective December opening-range and the focus remains on a breakout in the weeks ahead for guidance. From a trading standpoint, the bulls remain vulnerable while below 94,263 with a break below 83,712 needed to fuel the next major leg of the Bitcoin decline.” Despite a topside breach on January 13, the bulls were unable to secure a weekly close above lateral resistance at 93,347-94,236- a region defined by the objective 2025 yearly open, the May low, and the 61.8% retracement of the 2025 yearly range.
The subsequent reversal has now extended more than 15% off the monthly high with BTC/USD now testing key support at the 2025 low-week close (LWC), the December swing low and the 38.2% retracement of the 2022 advance at 83,712-84,00. Looking for a reaction off this mark in the days ahead with a weekly close below needed to mark resumption of the October downtrend.
Bitcoin Price Chart – BTC/USD Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; BTC/USD on TradingView
A closer look at the Bitcoin daily chart shows BTC/USD breaking below the November trendline last week with multiple tests of this slope as resistance keeping the bears in control. A channel extending off the monthly highs is guiding the most recent decline with the lower parallel further highlighting near-term support here at 83,712-84,000.
Initial resistance is eyed with the December low-day close (LDC) at 86,291 and is backed closely by the objective yearly open at 87,496. A topside breach / daily close above this threshold is needed to suggest a more significant low is in place and a larger recovery is underway. Subsequent resistance is eyed back at 93,347-94,236 and 98,008/240- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the October decline and the June swing low. Strength surpassing this zone is ultimately needed to put the bulls back in control here.
A break below this key pivot zone would expose the 2025 weekly low close and the 2025 low-day close (LDC) at 78,342-79,127. Note that channel support converges on this threshold next week. Subsequent support objectives are eyed at the March 2024 high and the 2025 swing low at 73,679-74,434 followed by 69,000/675- a region defined by the 2021 swing high and the 61.8% extension of the October decline. Both these zones represent areas of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.
Bottom line: Bitcoin is testing big support here and losses below this level would threaten resumption of the multi-month downtrend in BTC/USD. From a trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to 87,496 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 83,712 still needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.
--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
