Japanese yen crosses remain active across the board, with divergent setups emerging among the majors. USD/JPY is showing signs of a bearish reversal below 160, AUD/JPY is pressing multi-decade highs, while CHF/JPY continues to stall beneath key resistance at 204. Here’s what the latest price action signals for traders.
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Japanese Yen (JPY) Overview
Source: ICE, TradingView
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: US Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Monday’s shooting star candle marks the second lower high for USD/JPY since March 30, and the second time bulls have failed to push prices to—or above—160. Momentum clearly turned lower on Tuesday, completing a 3-day bearish reversal pattern known as an evening star.
The risk-on backdrop has weighed on the US dollar as traders reprice Fed cuts, allowing the Japanese yen to strengthen against it. I suspect there could be further downside for USD/JPY on anticipation of productive US–Iran talks, even though they have yet to begin.
For me, the key question is whether USD/JPY continues to slide from here, or if we first see a corrective pullback before another leg lower.
- The 4-hour chart shows prices consolidating within a potential flag pattern, hinting at a downside break towards the monthly pivot point (158.38). A break below that level brings the weekly S1 pivot (158.08) and the 158 handle into focus.
- Should prices initially pull back ahead of any downside break, bears could monitor for a potential swing high around the 159 handle or the weekly pivot point (159.06).
Source: ICE, TradingView
AUD/JPY Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar vs Japanese Yen
The Australian dollar has been the strongest major FX currency this year, taking full advantage of one of its weakest counterparts—the Japanese yen. This helped AUD/JPY reach a 36-year high of 113.96 in March, and after a brief risk-off wobble, bulls are once again eyeing a breakout.
However, bullish momentum on the daily chart is already starting to wane, even though dips continue to be bought. While this keeps the door open for a move back towards the cycle highs, I suspect we need clear confirmation of a US–Iran peace deal to sustain further upside.
The 1-hour chart shows a potential swing low forming between the 20 and 50 EMAs following a pullback from Tuesday’s high. This could support bulls in the near term, with a move towards 113.50 and the monthly R1 pivot (113.63) in focus.
That said, the pickup in volatility below resistance keeps the risk of a pullback on the table if near-term targets are reached. A confirmed deal is likely required for AUD/JPY to break higher, allowing traders to refocus on the potential for further RBA tightening.
Source: ICE, TradingView
CHF/JPY Technical Analysis: Swiss Franc vs Japanese Yen
The Swiss franc has dominated the Japanese yen since its March 2025 low, largely shrugging off the threat of currency intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MOF). Over the past two weeks, CHF/JPY has risen just over 3%, with prices teasing a break above 204. Yet this remains a key level that has repeatedly denied bulls a sustained breakout.
Tuesday’s doji just below this level highlights hesitation among bulls to commit to a breakout. The 1-hour chart shows bullish momentum is waning, although Tuesday’s pullback also leaves the door open for another attempt higher.
Prices are hovering around the weekly R1 pivot, and the recent bullish outside bar points to a potential swing low on this timeframe.
However, given the repeated failures around 204, bulls may once again look to book profits below yesterday’s high. A break below 203 warns of a deeper pullback, while a sustained breakout—or daily close—above 204 is likely required before confirming a resumption of the bullish trend to a new record high.
Source: ICE, TradingView
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-- Written by Matt Simpson
Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge
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