US dollar positioning has eased for a second consecutive week after reaching a bullish extreme two weeks ago. At the same time, bullish bets are building across parts of FX—particularly EUR, GBP and CAD—while yen shorts continue to rise. The key question now is not whether positioning is stretched against the dollar, but whether the USD can continue to drift lower from its recent peak.
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COT Report: USD Eases from Bullish Extreme as Traders Assess Next Move
Large Speculator Positioning from the COT report
Source: CFTC (COT), LSEG
US Dollar: Net-long exposure fell for a second week (-$3.1 billion) to $10.8 billion, asset managers trimmed net-long exposure to the USD index by -1.5k contracts
EUR/USD: A -12.3k decline (-7.5%) of gross-short euro exposure saw net-long exposure rise 16k contracts (or 31.2k including asset managers)
GBP/USD: Net-long exposure rose 9.4k contracts among both sets of traders
USD/JPY: Net-short exposure to Japanese yen futures rose by a combined 15.5k contracts among large specs and asset managers
USD/CHF: Asset managers trimmed net-short exposure to Swiss franc futures by -4.1k contracts
USD/CAD: Gross-long exposure increased rose 44.1k among both sets of traders, with a clear trend of rising longs and diminishing shorts
AUD/USD: Minimal changes on the Australian dollar positioning show traders not ready to give up their bullish views heading into CPI week
NZD/USD: Net-short exposure continued to rise despite the recent surge of New Zealand dollar futures pricing
Asset Manager Positioning | COT Report
Source: CFTC (COT), LSEG
FX Futures Positioning | COT Report (IMM Data)
US Dollar Index (DXY) Futures Positioning | COT Report
Bulls continued to loosen their grip on the US dollar across several metrics. Aggregate USD positioning via the futures market fell for a second consecutive week to $10.8 billion, declining by roughly $3 billion per week. This has been accompanied by a reduction in net-long exposure to the US dollar index among asset managers.
While bullish exposure was only trimmed by -1.5k contracts last week, this came alongside a third consecutive weekly increase in gross shorts and a second week of declining longs. Asset managers had already reduced net-long exposure by -5.2k contracts the week prior.
This reinforces my view that the US dollar index likely formed an important top on March 31, with bears increasingly looking to fade rallies on expectations of a move toward new cycle lows later this year.
Source: CFTC (COT), ICE, LSEG
EUR/USD Futures Positioning | COT Report
Futures traders increased their net-long exposure for a second week, after large speculators flipped to net-long exposure two weeks ago. Positioning is therefore far from any sort of sentiment extreme. Large specs are now net-long by 41.3k contracts, mostly fuelled by a reduction of euro shorts bets alongside a gradual rise of longs. If bullish bets beginning to build, it brings forward the chance of a break lower on the US dollar index.
Source: CFTC (COT), CME, LSEG
USD/JPY Futures Positioning | COT Report
Futures traders increased net-short exposure by a combined 15.5k contracts last week, with 11.3k driven by large speculators. A rise in gross shorts accounted for most of the move.
Zooming out, the Japanese yen chart shows a clear trend of rising gross shorts—particularly among large specs. Longs have plateaued among asset managers and edged higher for large specs in recent weeks, but the broader trend in net-short exposure remains firmly intact.
What stands out is that yen futures prices continue to trade in a tight sideways range, refusing to break lower. The longer the yen resists weakening in line with rising short bets, the greater the risk of a squeeze higher—potentially sending USD/JPY lower. Given the broader case for a softer US dollar, this is a scenario worth monitoring.
Source: CFTC (COT), CME, LSEG
USD/CAD Futures Positioning | COT Report
The Canadian dollar has risen for a third consecutive week against the US dollar, although most of the gains were made in week two. Asset managers are now on the verge of flipping back to net-long exposure, with a combined increase of over 40k net-long contracts across large specs and asset managers.
Longs picked up among asset managers, rising by 12.6k contracts (+18.5%) last week, while shorts were trimmed by -12.1k (-12.8%). With net exposure still well below sentiment extremes for both groups, there may be scope for further downside in USD/CAD.
Source: CFTC (COT), CME, LSEG
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-- Written by Matt Simpson
Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge
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